UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Corey Anderson (10-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Blachowicz at 1578 versus Anderson at 1459. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Anderson's striker approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anderson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Jan Blachowicz. We're leaning Anderson here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Michel Pereira (9-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pereira.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sanchez at 1139, Pereira at 1113. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Diego Sanchez. We're leaning Pereira here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Sanchez, but our model sees only 31%. That 9-point gap favoring Pereira is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Mara Romero Borella (2-4).

Rosa is rated at 1036 — 281 points above Borella's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borella throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Borella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Mara Romero Borella. We're leaning Rosa here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Brok Weaver (1-1) taking on Kazula Vargas (1-2). Weaver is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vargas carries a modest Elo edge (928 to 884), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vargas throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vargas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Weaver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kazula Vargas over Brok Weaver. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vargas at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Rogerio Bontorin (2-2). Bontorin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 292 points above Bontorin's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bontorin throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bontorin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Rogerio Bontorin. The model gives Borg a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Borg at 58% implied while our model sees 61% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Lando Vannata (4-6-2) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Medeiros at 999 versus Vannata at 898. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Vannata's all-rounder game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Vannata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over Yancy Medeiros. We're leaning Vannata here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vannata at 52% implied while our model sees 70% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Tim Means (15-13).

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 621 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 7.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Daniel Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Means at 82%. The market implies 26% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 18%. That 7-point gap favoring Means is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Nathaniel Wood (9-3). Wood is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1389 versus Dodson at 1256. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Wood's all-rounder approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over John Dodson. The model gives Wood a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 225 points above Holtzman's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holtzman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Scott Holtzman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Holtzman, but our model sees only 48%. That 8-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Dequan Townsend (0-3). Townsend is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Clark is rated at 944 — 238 points above Townsend's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Townsend has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Dequan Townsend. The model is firm on this one: Clark at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Clark at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Casey Kenney (5-2).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 633 points above Kenney's 1234. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kenney is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Casey Kenney. The model gives Dvalishvili a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 61% implied while our model sees 65% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Shanna Young (1-2). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 255 points above Young's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Shanna Young. The model is firm on this one: Chiasson at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Chiasson at 86% implied while our model sees 91% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Raulian Paiva (3-3) taking on Mark De La Rosa (2-4). Paiva is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Paiva is rated at 1007 — 271 points above Rosa's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Paiva's striker game against Rosa's all-rounder approach. Paiva brings a versatile approach, while Rosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paiva throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Paiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raulian Paiva over Mark De La Rosa. The model gives Paiva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.