UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Saturday, January 18, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 6/11(55%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGregor 69%31% Cerrone
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-3.4% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 49%51% Pennington
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Pennington)
HeavyweightHIT
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R2)
Oleinik 51%49% Greene
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +246(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Greene)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Oleinik)
BantamweightMISS
Brian Kelleher won by Submission (R1)
Kelleher 44%56% Osbourne
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 42% (+2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Kelleher)
LightweightHIT
Diego Ferreira won by Submission (R2)
Ferreira 67%33% Pettis
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Ferreira)
Prelims
Women's FlyweightMISS
Roxanne Modafferi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Modafferi 46%54% Barber
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 12% (+33.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -537(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Barber)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Modafferi)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 51%49% Fili
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +201(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Fili)
FlyweightMISS
Askar Askarov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Askarov 50%50% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -74(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Elliott)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 26%74% Haqparast
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+0.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -164(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aleksa Camur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camur 57%43% Ledet
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 54% (+3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -57(favors Ledet)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Ledet)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ledet)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sabina Mazo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mazo 67%33% Aldrich
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Mazo)