UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Saturday, December 14, 2019·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 12/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R5)
Usman 55%45% Covington
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Covington)
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Volkanovski 68%32% Holloway
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Volkanovski)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nunes 70%30% Randamie
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +226(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Nunes)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 52%48% Aldo
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Aldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moraes)
BantamweightHIT
Petr Yan won by KO/TKO (R3)
Yan 72%28% Faber
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Faber)
WelterweightHIT
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Neal 67%33% Perry
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Neal)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Irene Aldana won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aldana 46%54% Vieira
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -185(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Vieira)
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 64%36% Heinisch
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Heinisch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Akhmedov)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 59%41% Saunders
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +469(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Brown)
FeatherweightHIT
Chase Hooper won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hooper 58%42% Teymur
LEAN
→Elo gap: +96(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Teymur)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moreno 53%47% Kara-France
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Moreno)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jessica Eye won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eye 55%45% Araujo
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Araujo)
MiddleweightHIT
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Soriano 54%46% Piechota
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Piechota)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Piechota)