UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Colby Covington (12-4). Usman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 198 points above Covington's 1630. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Colby Covington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Usman at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway carries a modest Elo edge (1897 to 1824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's all-rounder game against Holloway's knockout artist approach. Volkanovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway. We're leaning Volkanovski here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Germaine de Randamie (7-2).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 295 points above Randamie's 1341. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nunes's all-rounder game against Randamie's striker approach. Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Randamie brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Germaine de Randamie. We're leaning Nunes here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-5) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8). Aldo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 265 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moraes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Aldo brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Moraes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Moraes over Jose Aldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 572 points above Faber's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Yan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Urijah Faber. We're leaning Yan here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Neal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Neal is rated at 1247 — 181 points above Perry's 1066. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Neal's all-rounder game against Perry's striker approach. Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Neal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geoff Neal over Mike Perry. We're leaning Neal here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-4).

Aldana carries a modest Elo edge (1331 to 1294), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vieira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Irene Aldana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vieira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Ian Heinisch (3-3).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 266 points above Heinisch's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Akhmedov's striker game against Heinisch's all-rounder approach. Akhmedov brings a versatile approach, while Heinisch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heinisch throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Ian Heinisch. The model gives Akhmedov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1201 — 388 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's knockout artist game against Saunders's all-rounder approach. Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Ben Saunders. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Daniel Teymur (1-3). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 363 points above Teymur's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hooper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Daniel Teymur. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moreno.

Moreno carries a modest Elo edge (1410 to 1351), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Moreno's wrestler game against Kara-France's striker approach. Moreno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Kai Kara-France. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moreno at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-9) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5).

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 257 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Eye looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Eye the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Eye over Viviane Araujo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eye at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Oskar Piechota (2-3). Piechota will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 457 points above Piechota's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Soriano's wrestler game against Piechota's knockout artist approach. Soriano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Piechota is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Piechota throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Piechota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Punahele Soriano over Oskar Piechota. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Soriano at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.