UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7).

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 263 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Magomedsharipov's wrestler game against Kattar's striker approach. Magomedsharipov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kattar brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Magomedsharipov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Calvin Kattar. The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Magomedsharipov at 72% implied while our model sees 81% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Greg Hardy (4-4).

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 796 points above Hardy's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Greg Hardy. We're leaning Volkov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Volkov, but our model sees only 70%. That 4-point gap favoring Hardy is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Zelim Imadaev (0-2).

Roberts is rated at 906 — 151 points above Imadaev's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imadaev throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Imadaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Imadaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zelim Imadaev over Danny Roberts. We're leaning Imadaev here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Khadis Ibragimov (0-3).

Herman is rated at 1045 — 306 points above Ibragimov's 740. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ibragimov throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ibragimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ibragimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khadis Ibragimov over Ed Herman. We're leaning Ibragimov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Herman, but our model sees only 30%. That 6-point gap favoring Ibragimov is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Ramazan Emeev (5-2). Emeev will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Martin is rated at 1419 — 373 points above Emeev's 1047. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emeev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emeev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Ramazan Emeev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Gamzatov (1-0) taking on Klidson Abreu (1-2). Gamzatov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gamzatov at 946, Abreu at 953. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abreu throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abreu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gamzatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Klidson Abreu over Shamil Gamzatov. The model gives Abreu a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4). There's a 7-inch height gap favoring Ankalaev.

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 1033 points above Lungiambula's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Dalcha Lungiambula. We're leaning Ankalaev here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Ankalaev, but our model sees only 70%. That 5-point gap favoring Lungiambula is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Sergey Khandozhko (1-1). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Khandozhko.

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 196 points above Khandozhko's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Khandozhko throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Sergey Khandozhko. The model is firm on this one: Khabilov at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Khabilov at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Karl Roberson (4-5) taking on Roman Kopylov (6-4).

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 460 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Roberson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kopylov brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Roberson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Roberson over Roman Kopylov. The model gives Roberson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Roberson at 47% implied while our model sees 59% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features David Zawada (1-3) taking on Abubakar Nurmagomedov (2-1). Zawada will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Zawada at 991, Nurmagomedov at 1015. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zawada throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Zawada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abubakar Nurmagomedov over David Zawada. We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-4) taking on Alexander Yakovlev (3-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yakovlev at 970 versus Roberts at 885. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Yakovlev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Roberts the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yakovlev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yakovlev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Alexander Yakovlev. We're leaning Roberts here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 54% implied while our model sees 71% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Pannie Kianzad (5-5) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4). Kianzad is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kianzad is rated at 943 — 182 points above Clark's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Jessica-Rose Clark. The model gives Kianzad a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kianzad at 51% implied while our model sees 56% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Grigory Popov (0-1).

Grant is rated at 1200 — 357 points above Popov's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Popov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Grigory Popov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Grant at 41% implied while our model sees 54% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.