UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025·Atlanta, Georgia, USA·13 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Usman 23%77% Buckley
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONGMarket: 34% (-11.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Buckley)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Rose Namajunas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Namajunas 62%38% Maverick
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 68% (-6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +229(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Namajunas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Maverick)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shahbazyan 57%43% Petroski
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 59% (-2.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Shahbazyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Petroski)
BantamweightHIT
Raoni Barcelos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barcelos 73%27% Garbrandt
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Barcelos)
Middleweight
Abdul-Malik 89%11% Brundage
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +251(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Brundage)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Alonzo Menifield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Menifield 16%84% Sy
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 16% (-0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +30(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Sy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Sy)
Prelims
Light Heavyweight
Craig 19%81% Bellato
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 26% (-6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -42(favors Bellato)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Bellato)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Bellato)
WelterweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chiesa 67%33% McGee
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +431(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors McGee)
BantamweightHIT
Malcolm Wellmaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wellmaker 91%9% Moutinho
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 91% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +510(favors Wellmaker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moutinho)
FlyweightHIT
Jose Ochoa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ochoa 72%28% Durden
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -234(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Durden)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Simon 86%14% Smotherman
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +355(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Smotherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Simon)
WelterweightMISS
Phil Rowe won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rowe 46%54% Loosa
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +313(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Loosa)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jamey-Lyn Horth won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horth 76%24% Demopoulos
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Horth)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Horth)