UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Usman at 1828 versus Buckley at 1728. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Buckley has won 6 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Kamaru Usman. We're leaning Buckley here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Miranda Maverick (8-3).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 157 points above Maverick's 1264. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Namajunas throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Miranda Maverick. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Andre Petroski (8-3). Shahbazyan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 347 points above Petroski's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petroski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Petroski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Andre Petroski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shahbazyan at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Cody Garbrandt (9-6).

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 256 points above Garbrandt's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barcelos's wrestler game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Barcelos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Cody Garbrandt. The model gives Barcelos a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (2-0) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6). Abdul-Malik is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1208 — 338 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdul-Malik throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Abdul-Malik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Cody Brundage. The model is firm on this one: Abdul-Malik at 79%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Oumar Sy (2-1). Sy is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Menifield at 1207, Sy at 1201. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sy throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Sy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oumar Sy over Alonzo Menifield. We're leaning Sy here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Rodolfo Bellato (1-0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Craig at 1045, Bellato at 1033. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bellato throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bellato is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bellato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodolfo Bellato over Paul Craig. The model gives Bellato a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 453 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Court McGee. The model gives Chiesa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Malcolm Wellmaker (2-0) taking on Kris Moutinho (0-2). Wellmaker is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wellmaker is rated at 1034 — 292 points above Moutinho's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moutinho throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moutinho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wellmaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker over Kris Moutinho. We're leaning Wellmaker here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Jose Ochoa (1-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1).

Ochoa is rated at 1028 — 182 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ochoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Ochoa over Cody Durden. The model gives Ochoa a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Cameron Smotherman (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smotherman.

Simon is rated at 1223 — 257 points above Smotherman's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smotherman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Smotherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Cameron Smotherman. The model gives Simon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Phil Rowe (4-4) taking on Ange Loosa (2-2). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rowe at 1041 versus Loosa at 934. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Loosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Rowe over Ange Loosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rowe at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4). Horth is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Horth is rated at 1183 — 300 points above Demopoulos's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Horth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model is firm on this one: Horth at 76%.