UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (16-3) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Usman at 1894 versus Buckley at 1750. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Kamaru Usman. The model is firm on this one: Buckley at 77%. The market implies 34% for Usman, but our model sees only 23%. That 11-point gap favoring Buckley is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-7) taking on Miranda Maverick (8-4).

Namajunas is rated at 1542 — 224 points above Maverick's 1318. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Namajunas throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Miranda Maverick. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Namajunas, but our model sees only 62%. That 6-point gap favoring Maverick is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (9-5) taking on Andre Petroski (8-4). Shahbazyan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1307 — 247 points above Petroski's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petroski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Petroski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Andre Petroski. The model gives Shahbazyan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (10-4) taking on Cody Garbrandt (10-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barcelos at 1418 versus Garbrandt at 1313. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barcelos's wrestler game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Barcelos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Cody Garbrandt. We're leaning Barcelos here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barcelos at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (3-1) taking on Cody Brundage (5-8). Abdul-Malik is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1126 — 251 points above Brundage's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdul-Malik throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Abdul-Malik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Cody Brundage. The model is firm on this one: Abdul-Malik at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-6-1) taking on Oumar Sy (3-2). Sy is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Menifield at 1314 versus Sy at 1173. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sy throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Sy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oumar Sy over Alonzo Menifield. The model is firm on this one: Sy at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-10-1) taking on Rodolfo Bellato (2-1-1).

Bellato carries a modest Elo edge (1222 to 1180), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bellato throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bellato is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bellato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodolfo Bellato over Paul Craig. The model is firm on this one: Bellato at 81%. The market implies 26% for Craig, but our model sees only 19%. That 6-point gap favoring Bellato is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (15-7) taking on Court McGee (11-13).

Chiesa is rated at 1566 — 455 points above McGee's 1111. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Court McGee. We're leaning Chiesa here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Chiesa, but our model sees only 67%. That 7-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Malcolm Wellmaker (2-1) taking on Kris Moutinho (0-4). Wellmaker is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wellmaker is rated at 1023 — 402 points above Moutinho's 620. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moutinho throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moutinho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wellmaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker over Kris Moutinho. The model is firm on this one: Wellmaker at 91%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Jose Ochoa (1-2) taking on Cody Durden (6-8-1).

Ochoa is rated at 1089 — 174 points above Durden's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ochoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Ochoa over Cody Durden. We're leaning Ochoa here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ochoa at 65% implied while our model sees 72% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-6-1) taking on Cameron Smotherman (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smotherman.

Simon is rated at 1297 — 337 points above Smotherman's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smotherman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Smotherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Cameron Smotherman. The model is firm on this one: Simon at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Phil Rowe (4-5) taking on Ange Loosa (2-3). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rowe is rated at 1137 — 159 points above Loosa's 978. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Loosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ange Loosa over Phil Rowe. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Loosa at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (4-2) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-5). Horth is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Horth is rated at 1191 — 283 points above Demopoulos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Horth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model is firm on this one: Horth at 76%.