UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 306 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Jessica Andrade. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Namajunas at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Andrade, but our model sees only 49%. That 7-point gap favoring Namajunas is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Silva.

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 272 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannonier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Anderson Silva. The model gives Cannonier a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cannonier at 52% implied while our model sees 58% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8).

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 404 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's submission artist game against Aldo's striker approach. Volkanovski is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Aldo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Jose Aldo. We're leaning Volkanovski here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Laureano Staropoli (2-3) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Staropoli.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alves at 901 versus Staropoli at 801. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Staropoli's striker game against Alves's all-rounder approach. Staropoli brings a versatile approach, while Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Staropoli throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Staropoli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Laureano Staropoli over Thiago Alves. We're leaning Staropoli here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Staropoli at 48% implied while our model sees 68% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Aldana is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 448 points above Correia's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldana's all-rounder game against Correia's striker approach. Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Correia brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Correia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Irene Aldana over Bethe Correia. The model is firm on this one: Aldana at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Aldana at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Spann at 1116, Nogueira at 1142. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nogueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Rogerio Nogueira. The model gives Spann a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Spann at 55% implied while our model sees 65% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6).

Moises is rated at 1124 — 291 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moises the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Holobaugh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Moises over Kurt Holobaugh. The model gives Moises a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moises at 53% implied while our model sees 61% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Sergio Moraes (8-4-1).

Moraes is rated at 1097 — 202 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 56% implied while our model sees 59% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Guida at 926, Penn at 938. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over BJ Penn. The model is firm on this one: Guida at 78%.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). Carolina will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Carolina at 1036 versus Cachoeira at 903. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachoeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Carolina over Priscila Cachoeira. We're leaning Carolina here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Carolina at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Carlos Huachin (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barcelos.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 518 points above Huachin's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Huachin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Carlos Huachin. The model is firm on this one: Barcelos at 84%. The market implies 89% for Barcelos, but our model sees only 84%. That 5-point gap favoring Huachin is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Talita Bernardo (1-2).

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 377 points above Bernardo's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bernardo throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bernardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Araujo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Talita Bernardo over Viviane Araujo. We're leaning Bernardo here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.