UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Saturday, May 4, 2019·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Donald Cerrone won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cerrone 43%57% Iaquinta
LEANMarket: 45% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Cerrone)
MiddleweightMISS
Derek Brunson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brunson 41%59% Theodorou
LEANMarket: 49% (-8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -110(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brunson)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Burgos 68%32% Swanson
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+6.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvalishvili 56%44% Katona
LEANMarket: 61% (-5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -257(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.3(favors Dvalishvili)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R1)
Harris 52%48% Spivac
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +210(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Harris)
MiddleweightMISS
Andrew Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 47%53% Barriault
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-12.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Barriault)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Sanchez)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Macy Chiasson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Chiasson 79%21% Moras
STRONGMarket: 85% (-5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +308(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Moras)
BantamweightHIT
Vince Morales won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morales 60%40% Zahabi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +0(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zahabi)
WelterweightHIT
Nordine Taleb won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taleb 84%16% Prepolec
STRONGMarket: 80% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +43(favors Taleb)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Taleb)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Taleb)
FeatherweightHIT
Matt Sayles won by Submission (R3)
Sayles 65%35% Nelson
LEANMarket: 64% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -65(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Sayles)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
HeavyweightMISS
Arjan Bhullar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bhullar 44%56% Adams
LEANMarket: 44% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -48(favors Adams)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Adams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Adams)
BantamweightHIT
Cole Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 55%45% Gagnon
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+8.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -52(favors Gagnon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Gagnon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Gagnon)