UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Iaquinta at 1195 versus Cerrone at 1054. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Iaquinta's striker approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Iaquinta a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Elias Theodorou (8-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brunson at 1402 versus Theodorou at 1270. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Theodorou has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Brunson's all-rounder game against Theodorou's striker approach. Brunson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Theodorou brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Theodorou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Derek Brunson. The model gives Theodorou a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Brunson, but our model sees only 41%. That 8-point gap favoring Theodorou is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Burgos at 1365 versus Swanson at 1255. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Burgos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Swanson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Burgos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Cub Swanson. We're leaning Burgos here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Burgos at 62% implied while our model sees 68% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Brad Katona (4-4). Dvalishvili will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 1028 points above Katona's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dvalishvili's wrestler game against Katona's striker approach. Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Katona brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Katona has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Brad Katona. The model gives Dvalishvili a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Dvalishvili, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Katona is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6).

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 222 points above Harris's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Harris's striker game against Spivac's submission artist approach. Harris brings a versatile approach, while Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Serghei Spivac. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Harris at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Sanchez (5-4) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sanchez at 932, Barriault at 954. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Barriault's all-rounder approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Andrew Sanchez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barriault at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Sanchez, but our model sees only 47%. That 12-point gap favoring Barriault is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 338 points above Moras's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moras is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Chiasson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Sarah Moras. The model is firm on this one: Chiasson at 79%. The market implies 85% for Chiasson, but our model sees only 79%. That 5-point gap favoring Moras is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vince Morales (3-7) taking on Aiemann Zahabi (7-2).

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 734 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Morales's all-rounder game against Zahabi's striker approach. Morales is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zahabi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Zahabi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vince Morales over Aiemann Zahabi. The model gives Morales a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Kyle Prepolec (0-3). Taleb is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Taleb is rated at 976 — 202 points above Prepolec's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Prepolec has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Kyle Prepolec. The model is firm on this one: Taleb at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Taleb at 80% implied while our model sees 84% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Matt Sayles (1-2) taking on Kyle Nelson (4-5-1). Nelson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 403 points above Sayles's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sayles throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sayles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Sayles over Kyle Nelson. The model gives Sayles a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Arjan Bhullar (2-1) taking on Juan Adams (1-2). Adams is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Bhullar is rated at 1137 — 386 points above Adams's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adams throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Adams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bhullar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Juan Adams over Arjan Bhullar. The model gives Adams a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cole Smith (1-1) taking on Mitch Gagnon (4-3). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Gagnon carries a modest Elo edge (955 to 919), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Smith over Mitch Gagnon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 46% implied while our model sees 55% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.