UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Saturday, April 13, 2019·Atlanta, Georgia, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Dustin Poirier won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Poirier 33%67% Holloway
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -260(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Poirier)
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Adesanya 83%17% Gastelum
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
STRONGMarket: 62% (+21.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gastelum)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jr. 46%54% Anders
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -110(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Anders)
WelterweightHIT
Dwight Grant won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grant 60%40% Jouban
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 53% (+6.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Grant)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Nikita Krylov won by Submission (R2)
Krylov 43%57% Preux
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -121(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Krylov)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Matt Frevola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Frevola 58%42% Turner
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -259(favors Turner)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Frevola)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pantoja 65%35% Reis
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Reis)
WelterweightHIT
Max Griffin won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Griffin 55%45% Imadaev
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +139(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Griffin)
BantamweightMISS
Khalid Taha won by KO/TKO (R1)
Taha 47%53% Salmon
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+5.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Salmon)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Taha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Salmon)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 60%40% Millender
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -104(favors Millender)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Muhammad)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 90%10% Soukhamthath
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Soukhamthath)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jackson)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Poliana Botelho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Botelho 47%53% Mueller
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-13.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Botelho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Mueller)
BantamweightMISS
Brandon Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 38%62% Costa
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 62% (-23.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Davis)