UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Saturday, March 9, 2019·Wichita, Kansas, USA
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 56%44% Lewis
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -110(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Lewis)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Submission (R1)
Santos 55%45% Millender
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +77(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Millender)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 47%53% Means
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+12.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Price)
HeavyweightHIT
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 50%50% Rothwell
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -447(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rothwell)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Submission (R2)
Dariush 71%29% Dober
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dariush)
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 63%37% Boetsch
LEANMarket: 58% (+4.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -188(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Akhmedov)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 65%35% Moraes
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Moraes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 72%28% Reneau
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+7.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Reneau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Santos)
FeatherweightHIT
Grant Dawson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawson 67%33% Erosa
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Erosa)
HeavyweightMISS
Maurice Greene won by Decision - Split (R3)
Greene 46%54% Hughes
TOSS-UPMarket: 31% (+14.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +111(favors Greene)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Greene)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hughes)
BantamweightHIT
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R1)
Schnell 63%37% Smolka
LEANMarket: 46% (+17.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Smolka)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by KO/TKO (R1)
Morono 68%32% Ottow
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Ottow)
LightweightHIT
Alex White won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
White 71%29% Moret
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+15.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -37(favors Moret)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors White)