UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Saturday, March 9, 2019·Wichita, Kansas, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 63%37% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Lewis)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Submission (R1)
Santos 60%40% Millender
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 47% (+13.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +19(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Millender)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 43%57% Means
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 35% (+7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Price)
HeavyweightHIT
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 54%46% Rothwell
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+4.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -570(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rothwell)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Submission (R2)
Dariush 75%25% Dober
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 65% (+9.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dariush)
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 70%30% Boetsch
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+12.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -172(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Akhmedov)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 60%40% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Moraes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 75%25% Reneau
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+10.2% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Reneau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Santos)
FeatherweightHIT
Grant Dawson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawson 66%34% Erosa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Erosa)
HeavyweightMISS
Maurice Greene won by Decision - Split (R3)
Greene 46%54% Hughes
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 31% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +166(favors Greene)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Greene)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hughes)
BantamweightHIT
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R1)
Schnell 55%45% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 46% (+9.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Smolka)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by KO/TKO (R1)
Morono 71%29% Ottow
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+9.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Ottow)
LightweightHIT
Alex White won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
White 74%26% Moret
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+17.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +28(favors White)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors White)