UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-8) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-11).

Lewis carries a modest Elo edge (1493 to 1427), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1) taking on Curtis Millender (3-2). Millender is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Millender carries a modest Elo edge (1284 to 1215), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Millender throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Millender has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Curtis Millender. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 47% implied while our model sees 60% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-11) taking on Tim Means (15-14).

Means carries a modest Elo edge (1042 to 975), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Price looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Price the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Niko Price. The model gives Means a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Price at 35% implied while our model sees 43% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Blagoy Ivanov (3-5) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-8). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ivanov at 1249, Rothwell at 1220. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Blagoy Ivanov over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ivanov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ivanov at 49% implied while our model sees 54% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-1) taking on Drew Dober (15-11). Dariush is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dariush is rated at 1557 — 256 points above Dober's 1301. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Drew Dober. The model is firm on this one: Dariush at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 65% implied while our model sees 75% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-5-1) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Akhmedov at 1411 versus Boetsch at 1280. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Akhmedov's wrestler game against Boetsch's striker approach. Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Tim Boetsch. We're leaning Akhmedov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Akhmedov at 58% implied while our model sees 70% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-6) taking on Sergio Moraes (8-5-1).

Martin is rated at 1520 — 253 points above Moraes's 1267. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Martin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (7-5) taking on Marion Reneau (5-7-1).

Santos is rated at 1325 — 381 points above Reneau's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos brings a versatile approach, while Reneau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Reneau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yana Santos over Marion Reneau. We're leaning Santos here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 65% implied while our model sees 75% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-2-1) taking on Julian Erosa (9-9). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dawson is rated at 1453 — 295 points above Erosa's 1157. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Dawson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Julian Erosa. We're leaning Dawson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Greene (4-4) taking on Jeff Hughes (0-3). Greene is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Greene is rated at 947 — 202 points above Hughes's 745. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Hughes over Maurice Greene. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Greene at 31% implied while our model sees 46% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-8) taking on Louis Smolka (8-9).

Schnell carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 951), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Schnell over Louis Smolka. The model gives Schnell a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Schnell at 46% implied while our model sees 55% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-10) taking on Zak Ottow (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morono at 1029, Ottow at 1003. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ottow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Zak Ottow. We're leaning Morono here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Morono at 62% implied while our model sees 71% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex White (4-6) taking on Dan Moret (0-3).

White is rated at 940 — 194 points above Moret's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Dan Moret. We're leaning White here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has White at 56% implied while our model sees 74% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.