UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10).

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 175 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Curtis Millender (3-1). Millender is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Millender at 1185 versus Santos at 1041. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Millender throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Millender has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Curtis Millender. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 47% implied while our model sees 55% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Tim Means (15-13).

Means carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Price looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Price the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Niko Price. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Means at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Price at 35% implied while our model sees 47% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Blagoy Ivanov (3-4) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ivanov carries a modest Elo edge (1148 to 1080), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Blagoy Ivanov over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ivanov at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Dariush is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 354 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Drew Dober. We're leaning Dariush here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Akhmedov at 1303 versus Boetsch at 1174. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Akhmedov's wrestler game against Boetsch's striker approach. Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Tim Boetsch. The model gives Akhmedov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Akhmedov at 58% implied while our model sees 63% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Sergio Moraes (8-4-1).

Martin is rated at 1419 — 323 points above Moraes's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Martin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1).

Santos is rated at 1304 — 426 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos brings a versatile approach, while Reneau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Reneau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yana Santos over Marion Reneau. We're leaning Santos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 65% implied while our model sees 72% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dawson carries a modest Elo edge (1336 to 1280), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Erosa has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dawson's wrestler game against Erosa's knockout artist approach. Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Erosa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Dawson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Julian Erosa. We're leaning Dawson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Greene (4-3) taking on Jeff Hughes (0-2). Greene is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Greene at 906 versus Hughes at 812. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Hughes over Maurice Greene. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Greene at 31% implied while our model sees 46% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schnell at 899, Smolka at 874. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Schnell over Louis Smolka. The model gives Schnell a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Schnell at 46% implied while our model sees 63% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Zak Ottow (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ottow at 963 versus Morono at 868. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ottow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Zak Ottow. We're leaning Morono here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Morono at 62% implied while our model sees 68% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex White (4-5) taking on Dan Moret (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: White at 907 versus Moret at 798. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Dan Moret. We're leaning White here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has White at 56% implied while our model sees 71% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.