UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
Saturday, February 23, 2019·Prague, Czech Republic·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Santos 60%40% Blachowicz
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 54% (+6.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Blachowicz)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R2)
Struve 63%37% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 51% (+12.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Lima)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 80%20% Villante
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+13.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -169(favors Villante)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Oleksiejczuk)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Liz Carmouche won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carmouche 69%31% Pudilova
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+11.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Carmouche)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Pudilova)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Carmouche)
BantamweightHIT
Petr Yan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yan 79%21% Dodson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+7.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Yan)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ankalaev 61%39% Abreu
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +35(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Ankalaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Abreu)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Dwight Grant won by KO/TKO (R1)
Grant 55%45% Jr.
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 41% (+13.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -164(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Jr.)
FeatherweightHIT
Chris Fishgold won by Submission (R2)
Fishgold 74%26% Teymur
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +130(favors Fishgold)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Fishgold)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Fishgold)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by Submission (R2)
Robertson 70%30% Hardy
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +246(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Robertson)
LightweightHIT
Damir Hadzovic won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hadzovic 59%41% Reyes
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 55% (+4.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
WelterweightMISS
Ismail Naurdiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naurdiev 19%81% Prazeres
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 20% (-1.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -508(favors Prazeres)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Prazeres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Prazeres)
LightweightMISS
Diego Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferreira 41%59% Khabilov
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Khabilov)
LightweightHIT
Damir Ismagulov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ismagulov 78%22% Alvarez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+4.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Ismagulov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Ismagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Ismagulov)