UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 286 points above Santos's 1292. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Jan Blachowicz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 397 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The model gives Struve a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Struve at 51% implied while our model sees 62% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). Villante is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 563 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Gian Villante. The model is firm on this one: Oleksiejczuk at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-4) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7).

Carmouche is rated at 1127 — 323 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Carmouche's striker game against Pudilova's all-rounder approach. Carmouche brings a versatile approach, while Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pudilova throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Lucie Pudilova. The model gives Carmouche a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on John Dodson (10-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Yan.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 613 points above Dodson's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over John Dodson. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 71% implied while our model sees 78% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Klidson Abreu (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ankalaev.

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 819 points above Abreu's 953. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Abreu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abreu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Klidson Abreu. The model gives Ankalaev a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dwight Grant (3-4) taking on Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (1-1).

Jr. carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 830), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlo Pedersoli Jr. over Dwight Grant. The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Grant at 41% implied while our model sees 45% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chris Fishgold (1-2) taking on Daniel Teymur (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Fishgold.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fishgold at 897 versus Teymur at 811. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fishgold throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fishgold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Teymur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Fishgold over Daniel Teymur. We're leaning Fishgold here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Veronica Hardy (4-5).

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 261 points above Hardy's 1091. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Veronica Hardy. We're leaning Robertson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Hadzovic (4-5) taking on Marco Polo Reyes (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hadzovic at 882 versus Reyes at 772. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Hadzovic over Marco Polo Reyes. We're leaning Hadzovic here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Hadzovic at 55% implied while our model sees 66% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ismail Naurdiev (3-3) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-3). Naurdiev is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Naurdiev at 1183, Prazeres at 1157. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Naurdiev's striker game against Prazeres's wrestler approach. Naurdiev brings a versatile approach, while Prazeres looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Ismail Naurdiev. The model is firm on this one: Prazeres at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Rustam Khabilov (9-3).

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 176 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Khabilov's striker approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Khabilov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Khabilov a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-1) taking on Joel Alvarez (7-2). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 362 points above Ismagulov's 1202. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Ismagulov's striker game against Alvarez's all-rounder approach. Ismagulov brings a versatile approach, while Alvarez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Joel Alvarez. The model is firm on this one: Ismagulov at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.