UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Sunday, February 17, 2019·Phoenix, Arizona, USA·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 43%57% Velasquez
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 35% (+7.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Velasquez)
LightweightMISS
Paul Felder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Felder 38%62% Vick
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 48% (-9.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Vick)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cynthia Calvillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Calvillo 81%19% Casey
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +216(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Calvillo)
FeatherweightHIT
Kron Gracie won by Submission (R1)
Gracie 69%31% Caceres
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -75(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Caceres)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R3)
Luque 88%12% Barberena
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Luque)
FeatherweightMISS
Andre Fili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fili 40%60% Jury
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 44% (-3.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Fili)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 66%34% Rivera
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (+21.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Sterling)
BantamweightHIT
Manny Bermudez won by Submission (R1)
Bermudez 56%44% Lopez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 64% (-7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +69(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lopez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Bermudez)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Andrea Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 71%29% Evans-Smith
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Lee)
LightweightMISS
Nik Lentz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lentz 47%53% Holtzman
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Holtzman)
BantamweightMISS
Luke Sanders won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sanders 45%55% Barao
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-12.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -254(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Barao)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Emily Whitmire won by Submission (R1)
Whitmire 57%43% Albu
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -185(favors Albu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Albu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Albu)