UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Cain Velasquez (12-2). Ngannou is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 559 points above Velasquez's 1589. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Francis Ngannou. The model gives Velasquez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 35% implied while our model sees 40% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on James Vick (9-4). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Felder is rated at 1363 — 337 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Felder's all-rounder game against Vick's knockout artist approach. Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vick is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Paul Felder. The model gives Vick a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Felder, but our model sees only 37%. That 11-point gap favoring Vick is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Calvillo at 911, Casey at 904. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Calvillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Casey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Calvillo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Cortney Casey. We're leaning Calvillo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Kron Gracie (1-2) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12). Caceres will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 291 points above Gracie's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kron Gracie over Alex Caceres. The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Gracie, but our model sees only 63%. That 8-point gap favoring Caceres is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Luque will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luque is rated at 1250 — 290 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Luque's knockout artist game against Barberena's all-rounder approach. Luque is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Bryan Barberena. The model is firm on this one: Luque at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Myles Jury (8-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fili at 1140, Jury at 1141. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myles Jury over Andre Fili. We're leaning Jury here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 44% for Fili, but our model sees only 34%. That 9-point gap favoring Jury is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Jimmie Rivera (7-3). Sterling is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 407 points above Rivera's 1277. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sterling's all-rounder game against Rivera's striker approach. Sterling is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rivera brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Jimmie Rivera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sterling at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 44% implied while our model sees 54% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Manny Bermudez (3-1) taking on Benito Lopez (2-1).

Lopez carries a modest Elo edge (1006 to 959), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopez throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manny Bermudez over Benito Lopez. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Andrea Lee (5-8) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lee at 864 versus Evans-Smith at 758. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lee's all-rounder game against Evans-Smith's striker approach. Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Ashlee Evans-Smith. We're leaning Lee here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 171 points above Holtzman's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Scott Holtzman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lentz at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lentz at 40% implied while our model sees 55% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Luke Sanders (3-4) taking on Renan Barao (9-7). Barao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sanders carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Luke Sanders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barao at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Sanders, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Barao is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Emily Whitmire (2-3) taking on Aleksandra Albu (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Whitmire.

Albu is rated at 917 — 214 points above Whitmire's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albu throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Albu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Whitmire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Emily Whitmire over Aleksandra Albu. The model gives Whitmire a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.