UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Saturday, February 2, 2019·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil·13 fights
Model: 5/13(38%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Moraes won by Submission (R1)
Moraes 59%41% Assuncao
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 61% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Aldo 39%61% Moicano
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 43% (-4.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Moicano)
WelterweightHIT
Demian Maia won by Submission (R1)
Maia 66%34% Good
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +277(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Maia)
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 43%57% Teymur
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 52% (-9.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Oliveira)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Walker 79%21% Ledet
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 65% (+13.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +201(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ledet)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Livinha Souza won by Decision - Split (R3)
Souza 66%34% Frota
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +93(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.4(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +11.1(favors Souza)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Markus Perez won by Submission (R2)
Perez 37%63% Hernandez
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 39% (-2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -163(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Perez)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mara Romero Borella won by Decision - Split (R3)
Borella 37%63% Santos
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 40% (-3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Borella)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Borella)
WelterweightMISS
Thiago Alves won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alves 35%65% Griffin
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 34% (+0.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Alves)
HeavyweightMISS
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rozenstruik 49%51% Albini
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -7(favors Albini)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Albini)
FeatherweightMISS
Geraldo de Freitas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Freitas 40%60% Colares
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Colares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Colares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Colares)
BantamweightMISS
Said Nurmagomedov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nurmagomedov 42%58% Ramos
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 44% (-2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -336(favors Ramos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ramos)
FlyweightHIT
Rogerio Bontorin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bontorin 51%49% Magomed
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +46(favors Bontorin)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Magomed)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Magomed)