UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-6) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Moraes at 1254, Assuncao at 1260. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Moraes over Raphael Assuncao. The model gives Moraes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-9) taking on Renato Moicano (13-7). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moicano at 1641 versus Aldo at 1541. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Aldo's striker game against Moicano's all-rounder approach. Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Moicano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Jose Aldo. The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Aldo, but our model sees only 39%. That 4-point gap favoring Moicano is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-11) taking on Lyman Good (3-3).

Maia is rated at 1506 — 163 points above Good's 1343. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maia's all-rounder game against Good's striker approach. Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Good brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Lyman Good. We're leaning Maia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on David Teymur (5-1).

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 578 points above Teymur's 1397. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Teymur has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's submission artist game against Teymur's striker approach. Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Teymur brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Teymur over Charles Oliveira. The model gives Teymur a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Oliveira, but our model sees only 43%. That 9-point gap favoring Teymur is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (8-6) taking on Justin Ledet (3-4). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1552 — 796 points above Ledet's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ledet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Justin Ledet. The model is firm on this one: Walker at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Walker at 65% implied while our model sees 79% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Livinha Souza (3-3) taking on Sarah Frota (0-2). Frota is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Souza at 898 versus Frota at 801. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.1 more per 15 minutes. Frota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Sarah Frota. We're leaning Souza here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Markus Perez (2-5) taking on Anthony Hernandez (9-3).

Hernandez is rated at 1730 — 939 points above Perez's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 8 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Markus Perez. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mara Romero Borella (2-5) taking on Taila Santos (4-3).

Santos is rated at 1350 — 629 points above Borella's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borella throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taila Santos over Mara Romero Borella. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 40% for Borella, but our model sees only 37%. That 3-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-12) taking on Max Griffin (8-10). Griffin is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Griffin is rated at 1276 — 215 points above Alves's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Griffin's all-rounder approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Thiago Alves. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-6) taking on Junior Albini (1-4). Rozenstruik will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rozenstruik is rated at 1561 — 771 points above Albini's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albini throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Albini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Albini over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Albini at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Geraldo de Freitas (1-2) taking on Felipe Colares (2-4). Freitas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Freitas at 879, Colares at 901. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Colares throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Colares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Colares over Geraldo de Freitas. The model gives Colares a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-4) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-7).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1281 — 372 points above Ramos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ramos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Said Nurmagomedov. The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Rogerio Bontorin (2-3) taking on Bibulatov Magomed (1-2).

Magomed carries a modest Elo edge (865 to 832), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomed throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomed is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bontorin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rogerio Bontorin over Bibulatov Magomed. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bontorin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.