UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-5) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6).

Moraes carries a modest Elo edge (1155 to 1099), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Moraes over Raphael Assuncao. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Moraes, but our model sees only 51%. That 9-point gap favoring Assuncao is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moicano at 1542 versus Aldo at 1420. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Aldo's striker game against Moicano's all-rounder approach. Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Moicano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Jose Aldo. We're leaning Moicano here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 43% for Aldo, but our model sees only 30%. That 13-point gap favoring Moicano is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Lyman Good (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maia at 1371 versus Good at 1228. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Maia's all-rounder game against Good's striker approach. Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Good brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Lyman Good. We're leaning Maia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on David Teymur (5-0).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 551 points above Teymur's 1295. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Teymur has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's submission artist game against Teymur's striker approach. Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Teymur brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Teymur over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Teymur at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Justin Ledet (3-3). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 676 points above Ledet's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Walker's knockout artist game against Ledet's all-rounder approach. Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ledet is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ledet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Justin Ledet. We're leaning Walker here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Walker at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Livinha Souza (3-2) taking on Sarah Frota (0-1). Frota is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Souza at 857, Frota at 863. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.1 more per 15 minutes. Frota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Sarah Frota. We're leaning Souza here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Markus Perez (2-4) taking on Anthony Hernandez (9-2).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 819 points above Perez's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 8 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Markus Perez. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 39% implied while our model sees 43% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mara Romero Borella (2-4) taking on Taila Santos (4-2).

Santos is rated at 1262 — 506 points above Borella's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borella throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taila Santos over Mara Romero Borella. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Borella at 40% implied while our model sees 47% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). Griffin is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Griffin is rated at 1152 — 251 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Griffin's all-rounder approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Thiago Alves. We're leaning Griffin here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Alves, but our model sees only 29%. That 6-point gap favoring Griffin is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Junior Albini (1-3). Rozenstruik will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 567 points above Albini's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albini throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Albini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Junior Albini. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rozenstruik at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rozenstruik at 48% implied while our model sees 54% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Geraldo de Freitas (1-1) taking on Felipe Colares (2-3). Freitas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Freitas carries a modest Elo edge (923 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Colares throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Colares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Colares over Geraldo de Freitas. The model gives Colares a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1181 — 353 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ramos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Said Nurmagomedov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Rogerio Bontorin (2-2) taking on Bibulatov Magomed (1-1).

Magomed carries a modest Elo edge (912 to 880), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomed throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomed is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bontorin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rogerio Bontorin over Bibulatov Magomed. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bontorin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.