UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber lands on Saturday, May 31, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit KleinLightweight | Mateusz Gamrot | Lean | 61% |
| Ramiz Brahimaj vs Billy Ray GoffWelterweight | Billy Ray Goff | Lean | 58% |
| Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno LopesLight Heavyweight | Bruno Lopes | Toss-up | 54% |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Macy ChiassonWomen's Featherweight | Macy Chiasson | Toss-up | 54% |
| Zach Reese vs Dusko TodorovicMiddleweight | Zach Reese | Confident | 67% |
| Allan Nascimento vs Jafel FilhoFlyweight | Jafel Filho | Toss-up | 52% |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Kurt HolobaughLightweight | Jordan Leavitt | Confident | 75% |
| Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell Jr.Lightweight | Bolaji Oki | Lean | 58% |
| Alice Ardelean vs Rayanne dos SantosWomen's Strawweight | Rayanne dos Santos | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein
The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Ludovit Klein (7-3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gamrot.
Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 208 points above Klein's 1364. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Klein's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Klein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Ludovit Klein. The model gives Gamrot a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Billy Ray Goff
The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3) taking on Billy Ray Goff (1-1).
Brahimaj is rated at 1144 — 242 points above Goff's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Goff throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brahimaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Goff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Billy Ray Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj. The model gives Goff a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Bruno Lopes (1-0).
Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 345 points above Lopes's 1029. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bruno Lopes over Dustin Jacoby. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lopes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson
The Women's Featherweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Vieira at 1294 versus Chiasson at 1145. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Vieira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiasson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chiasson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Zach Reese vs Dusko Todorovic
The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-2) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Reese at 993 versus Todorovic at 871. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Reese's wrestler game against Todorovic's striker approach. Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Todorovic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Reese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Zach Reese over Dusko Todorovic. We're leaning Reese here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho
The Flyweight matchup features Allan Nascimento (3-1) taking on Jafel Filho (2-2).
Nascimento carries a modest Elo edge (1266 to 1193), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Nascimento rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Filho throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jafel Filho over Allan Nascimento. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Filho at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Jordan Leavitt vs Kurt Holobaugh
The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6).
Leavitt is rated at 1198 — 365 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Leavitt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leavitt the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Kurt Holobaugh. We're leaning Leavitt here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell Jr.
The Lightweight matchup features Bolaji Oki (2-1) taking on Michael Aswell Jr. (0-1). Oki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Jr. at 1048 versus Oki at 921. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oki throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bolaji Oki over Michael Aswell Jr.. The model gives Oki a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Alice Ardelean vs Rayanne dos Santos
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alice Ardelean (1-2) taking on Rayanne dos Santos (0-2).
Ardelean is rated at 968 — 190 points above Santos's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ardelean throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ardelean is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rayanne dos Santos over Alice Ardelean. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.