UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber lands on Saturday, May 31, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit KleinLightweight | Ludovit Klein | Lean | 57% |
| Ramiz Brahimaj vs Billy Ray GoffWelterweight | Billy Ray Goff | Strong | 78% |
| Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno LopesLight Heavyweight | Dustin Jacoby | Lean | 61% |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Macy ChiassonWomen's Featherweight | Ketlen Vieira | Toss-up | 53% |
| Zach Reese vs Dusko TodorovicMiddleweight | Zach Reese | Confident | 67% |
| Allan Nascimento vs Jafel FilhoFlyweight | Allan Nascimento | Toss-up | 53% |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Kurt HolobaughLightweight | Jordan Leavitt | Strong | 77% |
| Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell Jr.Lightweight | Bolaji Oki | Lean | 57% |
| Alice Ardelean vs Rayanne dos SantosWomen's Strawweight | Rayanne dos Santos | Lean | 57% |
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Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein
The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-4) taking on Ludovit Klein (8-3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gamrot.
Gamrot is rated at 1694 — 299 points above Klein's 1395. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Klein's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Klein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Mateusz Gamrot. The model gives Klein a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Gamrot, but our model sees only 43%. That 15-point gap favoring Klein is worth watching.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Billy Ray Goff
The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-4) taking on Billy Ray Goff (1-2).
Brahimaj is rated at 1178 — 310 points above Goff's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Goff throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brahimaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Goff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Billy Ray Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj. The model is firm on this one: Goff at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1) taking on Bruno Lopes (1-2).
Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 428 points above Lopes's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Bruno Lopes. The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson
The Women's Featherweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-5) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-6). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Vieira is rated at 1352 — 151 points above Chiasson's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Vieira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiasson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Macy Chiasson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vieira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 43% implied while our model sees 53% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.
Zach Reese vs Dusko Todorovic
The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-3) taking on Dusko Todorovic (4-6). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Reese is rated at 1013 — 162 points above Todorovic's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Reese's wrestler game against Todorovic's striker approach. Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Todorovic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Reese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Zach Reese over Dusko Todorovic. We're leaning Reese here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho
The Flyweight matchup features Allan Nascimento (4-1) taking on Jafel Filho (3-2).
Nascimento is rated at 1393 — 156 points above Filho's 1237. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Filho throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Allan Nascimento over Jafel Filho. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nascimento at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Jordan Leavitt vs Kurt Holobaugh
The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (6-3) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-7).
Leavitt is rated at 1236 — 396 points above Holobaugh's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Leavitt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leavitt the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Kurt Holobaugh. The model is firm on this one: Leavitt at 77%.
Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell Jr.
The Lightweight matchup features Bolaji Oki (2-3) taking on Michael Aswell Jr. (1-2). Oki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Jr. is rated at 1014 — 195 points above Oki's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oki throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bolaji Oki over Michael Aswell Jr.. The model gives Oki a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Alice Ardelean vs Rayanne dos Santos
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alice Ardelean (2-2) taking on Rayanne dos Santos (0-3).
Ardelean is rated at 935 — 282 points above Santos's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ardelean throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ardelean is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rayanne dos Santos over Alice Ardelean. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.