The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Friday, November 30, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✗✓✓✓✓✓
Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Usman 88%12% Anjos
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Anjos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Usman)
HeavyweightMISS
Juan Espino won by Submission (R1)
Espino 38%62% Frazier
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Frazier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Frazier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Frazier)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Macy Chiasson won by Submission (R2)
Chiasson 54%46% Kianzad
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kianzad)
BantamweightHIT
Pedro Munhoz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Munhoz 58%42% Caraway
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Caraway)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Shahbazyan 55%45% Stewart
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Stewart)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Stewart)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Antonina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shevchenko 44%56% Kim
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kim)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Kevin Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 41%59% Glenn
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -205(favors Glenn)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Glenn)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Glenn)
FlyweightMISS
Joseph Benavidez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Benavidez 44%56% Perez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Perez)
HeavyweightHIT
Maurice Greene won by Submission (R1)
Greene 52%48% Batista
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Batista)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Batista)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Batista)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Leah Letson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Letson 50%50% Stoliarenko
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Stoliarenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Stoliarenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stoliarenko)
LightweightHIT
Roosevelt Roberts won by Submission (R1)
Roberts 71%29% Horcher
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +79(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Horcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Horcher)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by KO/TKO (R1)
Means 64%36% Rainey
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +504(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Means)
BantamweightHIT
Raoni Barcelos won by Submission (R2)
Barcelos 67%33% Gutierrez
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.1(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Barcelos)