The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Usman is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 546 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Usman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model is firm on this one: Usman at 76%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Juan Espino (2-0) taking on Justin Frazier (0-0). Espino is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Espino is rated at 1097 — 208 points above Frazier's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frazier throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Frazier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frazier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Frazier over Juan Espino. The model gives Frazier a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 202 points above Kianzad's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiasson's wrestler game against Kianzad's striker approach. Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kianzad brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kianzad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Pannie Kianzad. The model gives Chiasson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Bryan Caraway (6-3). Caraway is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Munhoz at 1211, Caraway at 1191. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Caraway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Caraway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Bryan Caraway. The model gives Munhoz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 375 points above Stewart's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shahbazyan's all-rounder game against Stewart's striker approach. Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stewart brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Shahbazyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Darren Stewart. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shahbazyan at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Antonina Shevchenko (3-4) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6). Kim will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shevchenko is rated at 1027 — 304 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's wrestler game against Kim's striker approach. Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kim brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Antonina Shevchenko. The model gives Kim a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Aguilar (2-3) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1). Aguilar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Aguilar at 869, Glenn at 886. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Aguilar's striker game against Glenn's all-rounder approach. Aguilar brings a versatile approach, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Glenn throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Glenn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Kevin Aguilar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Glenn at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Alex Perez (7-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Benavidez at 1291, Perez at 1293. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Perez over Joseph Benavidez. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Greene (4-3) taking on Michel Batista (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Greene at 906, Batista at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Batista throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Batista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Batista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maurice Greene over Michel Batista. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Greene at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Leah Letson (1-0) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6). Letson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Letson at 937 versus Stoliarenko at 842. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stoliarenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoliarenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stoliarenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julija Stoliarenko over Leah Letson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stoliarenko at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-4) taking on Darrell Horcher (1-2). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Roberts at 885, Horcher at 860. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horcher throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Horcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Darrell Horcher. We're leaning Roberts here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Ricky Rainey (0-1).

Means carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 809), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Ricky Rainey. The model gives Means a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barcelos at 1410 versus Gutierrez at 1298. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barcelos's wrestler game against Gutierrez's striker approach. Barcelos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gutierrez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Chris Gutierrez. We're leaning Barcelos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.