UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
Saturday, November 3, 2018·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R2)
Cormier 90%10% Lewis
STRONGMarket: 78% (+11.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +356(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Cormier)
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Souza 52%48% Weidman
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Weidman)
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cannonier 25%75% Branch
STRONGMarket: 25% (-0.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -402(favors Branch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Branch)
MiddleweightHIT
Karl Roberson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Roberson 74%26% Marshman
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Marshman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Roberson)
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R1)
Adesanya 76%24% Brunson
STRONGMarket: 70% (+6.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -135(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Brunson)
FeatherweightMISS
Jordan Rinaldi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rinaldi 20%80% Knight
STRONGMarket: 27% (-6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -74(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Rinaldi)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 91%9% Modafferi
STRONGMarket: 83% (+8.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Eubanks)
FeatherweightMISS
Sheymon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 46%54% Arce
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -118(favors Arce)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Arce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arce)
WelterweightHIT
Lyman Good won by KO/TKO (R1)
Good 83%17% Saunders
STRONGMarket: 84% (-0.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Good)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Good)
Lightweight
Frevola 26%74% Vannata
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-5.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Frevola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Vannata)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Submission (R1)
Burgos 87%13% Holobaugh
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +266(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Holobaugh)
HeavyweightMISS
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 28%72% Wieczorek
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -157(favors Wieczorek)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wieczorek)