UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-3) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-11). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1991 — 498 points above Lewis's 1493. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cormier's all-rounder game against Lewis's striker approach. Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lewis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Derrick Lewis. The model is firm on this one: Cormier at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 78% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-7) taking on Chris Weidman (12-8). Weidman will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Souza at 1381 versus Weidman at 1260. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Jacare Souza. The model gives Weidman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-9) taking on David Branch (4-5).

Cannonier is rated at 1576 — 366 points above Branch's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Branch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Branch over Jared Cannonier. The model gives Branch a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cannonier at 25% implied while our model sees 38% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Karl Roberson (4-6) taking on Jack Marshman (3-5).

Marshman carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Roberson's all-rounder game against Marshman's striker approach. Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marshman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Roberson over Jack Marshman. The model is firm on this one: Roberson at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Roberson at 75% implied while our model sees 91% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-6) taking on Derek Brunson (14-7). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya carries a modest Elo edge (1638 to 1563), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's striker game against Brunson's all-rounder approach. Adesanya brings a versatile approach, while Brunson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Derek Brunson. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 70% implied while our model sees 79% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jordan Rinaldi (2-3) taking on Jason Knight (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rinaldi at 1174 versus Knight at 1056. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rinaldi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Knight over Jordan Rinaldi. The model is firm on this one: Knight at 79%. The market implies 27% for Rinaldi, but our model sees only 21%. That 6-point gap favoring Knight is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-5) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-8). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Modafferi carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 991), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's wrestler game against Modafferi's striker approach. Eubanks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Roxanne Modafferi. The model is firm on this one: Eubanks at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Eubanks at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sheymon Moraes (2-3) taking on Julio Arce (6-4).

Arce is rated at 1189 — 175 points above Moraes's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Sheymon Moraes. The model gives Arce a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Lyman Good (3-3) taking on Ben Saunders (9-10). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Good is rated at 1343 — 406 points above Saunders's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Good's striker game against Saunders's all-rounder approach. Good brings a versatile approach, while Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Good is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyman Good over Ben Saunders. The model is firm on this one: Good at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Good at 84% implied while our model sees 90% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-6-1) taking on Lando Vannata (4-8-2).

Frevola is rated at 1193 — 336 points above Vannata's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Frevola's knockout artist game against Vannata's all-rounder approach. Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over Matt Frevola. We're leaning Vannata here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Frevola, but our model sees only 25%. That 5-point gap favoring Vannata is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (8-3) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-7). Burgos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Burgos is rated at 1426 — 587 points above Holobaugh's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Kurt Holobaugh. The model is firm on this one: Burgos at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Burgos at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7) taking on Adam Wieczorek (2-1). Wieczorek is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1346 — 293 points above Wieczorek's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wieczorek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adam Wieczorek over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The model gives Wieczorek a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.