UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Oleinik is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hunt at 1169 versus Oleinik at 1073. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Oleinik's wrestler game against Hunt's striker approach. Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hunt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleinik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksei Oleinik over Mark Hunt. We're leaning Oleinik here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Oleinik at 49% implied while our model sees 66% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 178 points above Krylov's 1400. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Jan Blachowicz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Blachowicz at 42% implied while our model sees 48% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Abdurakhimov is rated at 1018 — 161 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shamil Abdurakhimov over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Abdurakhimov a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Abdurakhimov at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Aleksei Kunchenko (2-1) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11).

Kunchenko is rated at 1107 — 206 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kunchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Aleksei Kunchenko. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Khalid Murtazaliev (0-0) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8).

Murtazaliev is rated at 1177 — 212 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Murtazaliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khalid Murtazaliev over CB Dollaway. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Murtazaliev at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Jin Soo Son (0-1).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 1007 points above Son's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Son is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Son has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Jin Soo Son. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 91%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Kajan Johnson (4-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 221 points above Johnson's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Khabilov's striker game against Johnson's all-rounder approach. Khabilov brings a versatile approach, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Khabilov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Kajan Johnson. The model is firm on this one: Khabilov at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Desmond Green (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Taisumov at 1362 versus Green at 1221. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taisumov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Desmond Green. The model is firm on this one: Taisumov at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 954 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Marcin Prachnio. The model is firm on this one: Ankalaev at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Ankalaev at 82% implied while our model sees 87% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jordan Johnson (3-0) taking on Adam Yandiev (0-0). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1282 — 327 points above Yandiev's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Yandiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Johnson over Adam Yandiev. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 71% implied while our model sees 75% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-2) taking on Stefan Sekulic (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Emeev at 1047 versus Sekulic at 920. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emeev throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sekulic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Stefan Sekulic. The model is firm on this one: Emeev at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Terrion Ware (0-3). Ware is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 1135 points above Ware's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ware throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Terrion Ware. The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.