UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-6-1) taking on Darren Till (6-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Till.

Woodley is rated at 1642 — 217 points above Till's 1425. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Woodley's all-rounder game against Till's striker approach. Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Till brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Till throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Tyron Woodley. The model gives Till a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Woodley, but our model sees only 38%. That 11-point gap favoring Till is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-13) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-10). Kowalkiewicz is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1240 — 300 points above Kowalkiewicz's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Andrade's wrestler game against Kowalkiewicz's striker approach. Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kowalkiewicz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (6-0) taking on Brandon Davis (2-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Magomedsharipov.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1581 — 735 points above Davis's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Magomedsharipov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magomedsharipov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedsharipov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Brandon Davis. The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 75%. The market implies 91% for Magomedsharipov, but our model sees only 75%. That 16-point gap favoring Davis is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-4) taking on John Dodson (10-7).

Rivera carries a modest Elo edge (1411 to 1376), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over John Dodson. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-7) taking on Niko Price (8-11). Price is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alhassan at 1071 versus Price at 975. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Alhassan's knockout artist game against Price's all-rounder approach. Alhassan is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Abdul Razak Alhassan. The model gives Price a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Alhassan, but our model sees only 41%. That 9-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (8-1) taking on Carla Esparza (10-6). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1629 — 255 points above Esparza's 1374. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Carla Esparza. The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Suarez at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (17-5) taking on Cody Stamann (7-7-1). Sterling will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1790 — 719 points above Stamann's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sterling's all-rounder game against Stamann's striker approach. Sterling is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Cody Stamann. The model gives Sterling a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-6) taking on Frank Camacho (2-6).

Neal is rated at 1442 — 654 points above Camacho's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Neal's all-rounder game against Camacho's striker approach. Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geoff Neal over Frank Camacho. The model gives Neal a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-7) taking on Charles Byrd (1-3).

Stewart is rated at 1024 — 400 points above Byrd's 624. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Byrd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Byrd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Stewart over Charles Byrd. The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stewart at 38% implied while our model sees 63% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-13) taking on Craig White (0-2). White is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1216 — 295 points above White's 922. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Craig White. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanchez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 34% implied while our model sees 51% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-18) taking on Alex White (4-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring White.

Miller is rated at 1295 — 354 points above White's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while White is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Jim Miller. The model gives White a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 39% implied while our model sees 45% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-6) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-8).

Aldana is rated at 1411 — 615 points above Pudilova's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucie Pudilova over Irene Aldana. The model gives Pudilova a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Aldana, but our model sees only 44%. That 7-point gap favoring Pudilova is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jarred Brooks (2-2) taking on Robert Sanchez (1-2). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brooks at 963 versus Sanchez at 834. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jarred Brooks over Robert Sanchez. The model gives Brooks a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.