The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
Friday, July 6, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Adesanya 63%37% Tavares
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Tavares)
LightweightMISS
Michael Trizano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Trizano 35%65% Giannetti
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Giannetti)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Giannetti)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Giannetti)
FeatherweightHIT
Brad Katona won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Katona 53%47% Cucciniello
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Cucciniello)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Cucciniello)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cucciniello)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Decision - Split (R3)
Caceres 63%37% Bravo
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +141(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Bravo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Caceres)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Roxanne Modafferi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Modafferi 51%49% Honchak
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -80(favors Honchak)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Honchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Modafferi)
MiddleweightHIT
Alessio Di Chirico won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chirico 71%29% Marquez
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +16(favors Chirico)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Marquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Chirico)
Prelims
Women's FlyweightHIT
Montana De La Rosa won by Submission (R3)
Rosa 78%22% Ostovich
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ostovich)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -9.0(favors Ostovich)
LightweightHIT
Luis Pena won by Submission (R1)
Pena 60%40% Smullen
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Smullen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Smullen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smullen)
LightweightMISS
John Gunther won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Gunther 41%59% Zuniga
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Zuniga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Zuniga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zuniga)
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Mitchell 53%47% Diamond
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Diamond)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Diamond)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Diamond)
FeatherweightHIT
Steven Peterson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Peterson 58%42% Bessette
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -112(favors Bessette)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Peterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Peterson)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R2)
Meerschaert 44%56% Piechota
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Piechota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Meerschaert)