The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya is rated at 1559 — 635 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Israel Adesanya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tavares at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Trizano (3-3) taking on Joe Giannetti (0-0). Giannetti will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Trizano at 1073 versus Giannetti at 932. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giannetti throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Giannetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Giannetti over Michael Trizano. The model gives Giannetti a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Brad Katona (4-4) taking on Jay Cucciniello (0-0).

Cucciniello carries a modest Elo edge (915 to 838), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cucciniello throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cucciniello is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cucciniello has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Katona over Jay Cucciniello. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Katona at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Martin Bravo (1-2). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 484 points above Bravo's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bravo throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Martin Bravo. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Roxanne Modafferi (4-7) taking on Barb Honchak (0-1). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Modafferi is rated at 979 — 213 points above Honchak's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Honchak throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Honchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roxanne Modafferi over Barb Honchak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Modafferi at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Di Chirico (4-6) taking on Julian Marquez (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Chirico at 788 versus Marquez at 660. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Chirico's striker game against Marquez's wrestler approach. Chirico brings a versatile approach, while Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Julian Marquez. The model gives Chirico a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Rachael Ostovich (1-2). Rosa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rosa is rated at 1036 — 312 points above Ostovich's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ostovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.0 more per 15 minutes. Ostovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Rachael Ostovich. We're leaning Rosa here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Luis Pena (4-3) taking on Richie Smullen (0-0). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Pena is rated at 1146 — 256 points above Smullen's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smullen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smullen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smullen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Pena over Richie Smullen. We're leaning Pena here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features John Gunther (1-0) taking on Allan Zuniga (0-0). Gunther is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gunther at 1023 versus Zuniga at 915. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zuniga throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zuniga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zuniga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Allan Zuniga over John Gunther. The model gives Zuniga a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Tyler Diamond (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 440 points above Diamond's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diamond throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diamond is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diamond has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Tyler Diamond. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Peterson (3-4) taking on Matt Bessette (0-1).

Peterson carries a modest Elo edge (920 to 869), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peterson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Peterson over Matt Bessette. The model gives Peterson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Oskar Piechota (2-3).

Meerschaert carries a modest Elo edge (867 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Meerschaert's wrestler game against Piechota's knockout artist approach. Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Piechota is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Piechota throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Piechota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Oskar Piechota. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.