UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Friday, June 1, 2018·Utica, New York, USA
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Moraes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraes 45%55% Rivera
LEANMarket: 48% (-2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Rivera)
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by Submission (R2)
Gillespie 89%11% Pichel
STRONGMarket: 80% (+9.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Gillespie)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gillespie)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R2)
Harris 63%37% Spitz
LEANMarket: 67% (-4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +104(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Spitz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Spitz)
WelterweightHIT
Ben Saunders won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saunders 66%34% Ellenberger
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (+26.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ellenberger)
FeatherweightHIT
Julio Arce won by Submission (R3)
Arce 68%32% Teymur
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +170(favors Arce)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Arce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Teymur)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvey 63%37% Villante
LEANMarket: 58% (+4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Alvey)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 62%38% Murphy
LEANMarket: 65% (-3.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Murphy)
LightweightHIT
David Teymur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teymur 76%24% Lentz
STRONGMarket: 73% (+2.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lentz)
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 86%14% Rencountre
STRONGMarket: 79% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +303(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Muhammad)
LightweightHIT
Desmond Green won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Green 75%25% Tibau
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Tibau)
BantamweightHIT
Nathaniel Wood won by Submission (R2)
Wood 71%29% Eduardo
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Eduardo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Eduardo)
FlyweightMISS
Jose Torres won by KO/TKO (R2)
Torres 50%50% Brooks
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -6(favors Brooks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.0(favors Brooks)