UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-5) taking on Jimmie Rivera (7-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 1277 versus Moraes at 1155. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moraes's all-rounder game against Rivera's striker approach. Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rivera brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Marlon Moraes. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Vinc Pichel (7-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pichel.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 492 points above Pichel's 1062. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gillespie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pichel looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pichel the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gillespie throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Vinc Pichel. The model is firm on this one: Gillespie at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Gillespie at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Daniel Spitz (1-2). Spitz is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Harris is rated at 1133 — 275 points above Spitz's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spitz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spitz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Daniel Spitz. The model gives Harris a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Harris, but our model sees only 63%. That 4-point gap favoring Spitz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ellenberger carries a modest Elo edge (847 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Saunders over Jake Ellenberger. We're leaning Saunders here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Saunders at 40% implied while our model sees 66% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Daniel Teymur (1-3).

Arce is rated at 1167 — 356 points above Teymur's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Daniel Teymur. We're leaning Arce here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Arce at 63% implied while our model sees 68% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Gian Villante (7-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alvey at 734, Villante at 705. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Alvey's all-rounder game against Villante's striker approach. Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Gian Villante. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 58% implied while our model sees 63% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-4) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 197 points above Eubanks's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's wrestler game against Murphy's striker approach. Eubanks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Murphy brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Lauren Murphy. The model gives Eubanks a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Eubanks, but our model sees only 62%. That 3-point gap favoring Murphy is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features David Teymur (5-0) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Teymur will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Teymur at 1295 versus Lentz at 1159. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Teymur rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Teymur's striker game against Lentz's wrestler approach. Teymur brings a versatile approach, while Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Teymur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Teymur over Nik Lentz. The model is firm on this one: Teymur at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Chance Rencountre (2-1). Rencountre is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 694 points above Rencountre's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rencountre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Chance Rencountre. The model is firm on this one: Muhammad at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 79% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Desmond Green (3-3) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

Green is rated at 1221 — 202 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Green's striker game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Green brings a versatile approach, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Desmond Green over Gleison Tibau. The model is firm on this one: Green at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Johnny Eduardo (3-4).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 517 points above Eduardo's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eduardo throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Eduardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Johnny Eduardo. We're leaning Wood here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Jose Torres (1-0) taking on Jarred Brooks (1-2). Torres will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Torres carries a modest Elo edge (1008 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brooks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jarred Brooks over Jose Torres. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brooks at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Torres, but our model sees only 50%. That 7-point gap favoring Brooks is worth watching.