UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Saturday, April 21, 2018·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by KO/TKO (R5)
Lee 72%28% Barboza
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+12.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Lee)
FeatherweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 75%25% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Edgar)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Willis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Willis 81%19% Sherman
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +320(favors Willis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Willis)
MiddleweightMISS
David Branch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Branch 46%54% Santos
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+6.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -302(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Branch)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 52%48% Johns
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.9(favors Johns)
LightweightHIT
Dan Hooker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hooker 65%35% Miller
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Miller)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Ryan LaFlare won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
LaFlare 51%49% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors LaFlare)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors LaFlare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Garcia)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R3)
Simon 59%41% Dvalishvili
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 56% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -11.0(favors Dvalishvili)
WelterweightMISS
Siyar Bahadurzada won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bahadurzada 48%52% Chagas
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +237(favors Bahadurzada)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Chagas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Bahadurzada)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 69%31% Cummins
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+10.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cummins)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 55%45% Nakamura
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Nakamura)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Nakamura)