UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, May 3, 2025·Des Moines, Iowa, USA·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sandhagen 85%15% Figueiredo
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Figueiredo)
MiddleweightMISS
Reinier de Ridder won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ridder 25%75% Nickal
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Ridder)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ridder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Ridder)
WelterweightMISS
Daniel Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rodriguez 50%50% Ponzinibbio
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+6.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ponzinibbio)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 80%20% Marcos
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+11.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Marcos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Jackson)
BantamweightMISS
Serhiy Sidey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sidey 46%54% Smotherman
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Smotherman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Smotherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smotherman)
LightweightHIT
Mason Jones won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jones 86%14% Stephens
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -313(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Jones)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 55%45% Tate
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 42% (+13.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Tate)
MiddleweightHIT
Azamat Bekoev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bekoev 61%39% Loder
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEANMarket: 75% (-13.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +69(favors Bekoev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Bekoev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Bekoev)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Robertson 80%20% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Robertson)
BantamweightMISS
Quang Le won by Submission (R2)
Le 37%63% Bolanos
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 46% (-9.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -314(favors Bolanos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Bolanos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Le)
HeavyweightHIT
Thomas Petersen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petersen 61%39% Mayes
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Petersen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Petersen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Petersen)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Juliana Miller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miller 33%67% Petrovic
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -18(favors Petrovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Petrovic)