UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, May 3, 2025·Des Moines, Iowa, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sandhagen 63%37% Figueiredo
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Figueiredo)
MiddleweightMISS
Reinier de Ridder won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ridder 46%54% Nickal
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +18(favors Ridder)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ridder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Ridder)
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rodriguez 50%50% Ponzinibbio
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -120(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ponzinibbio)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 63%37% Marcos
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Marcos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Jackson)
BantamweightMISS
Serhiy Sidey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sidey 41%59% Smotherman
LEAN
→Elo gap: -88(favors Smotherman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Smotherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smotherman)
LightweightHIT
Mason Jones won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jones 73%27% Stephens
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -121(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Jones)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 52%48% Tate
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Tate)
MiddleweightMISS
Azamat Bekoev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bekoev 45%55% Loder
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +19(favors Bekoev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Bekoev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Bekoev)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Robertson 73%27% Rodriguez
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +127(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Robertson)
BantamweightMISS
Quang Le won by Submission (R2)
Le 32%68% Bolanos
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -199(favors Bolanos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Bolanos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Le)
HeavyweightHIT
Thomas Petersen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petersen 69%31% Mayes
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +41(favors Petersen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Petersen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Petersen)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Juliana Miller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miller 42%58% Petrovic
LEAN
→Elo gap: -9(favors Petrovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Petrovic)