UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-5) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-6-1). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1790 — 181 points above Figueiredo's 1610. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Figueiredo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model is firm on this one: Sandhagen at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 80% implied while our model sees 85% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Reinier de Ridder (4-2) taking on Bo Nickal (5-1). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ridder at 1554 versus Nickal at 1434. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ridder throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bo Nickal over Reinier de Ridder. We're leaning Nickal here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8).

Rodriguez is rated at 1511 — 177 points above Ponzinibbio's 1335. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Ponzinibbio's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ponzinibbio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Daniel Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ponzinibbio at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 43% implied while our model sees 50% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-3) taking on Daniel Marcos (5-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jackson at 1538 versus Marcos at 1452. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Marcos brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcos throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Daniel Marcos. The model is firm on this one: Jackson at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Jackson at 68% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Serhiy Sidey (2-1) taking on Cameron Smotherman (1-2). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1206 — 246 points above Smotherman's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smotherman throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Smotherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smotherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Smotherman over Serhiy Sidey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smotherman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Sidey, but our model sees only 46%. That 10-point gap favoring Smotherman is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (4-2) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-19). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 1303 — 190 points above Stephens's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jones's wrestler game against Stephens's striker approach. Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mason Jones over Jeremy Stephens. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 83% implied while our model sees 86% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (7-5) taking on Miesha Tate (7-7). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1325 — 197 points above Tate's 1128. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Tate's wrestler approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yana Santos over Miesha Tate. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 42% implied while our model sees 55% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Azamat Bekoev (2-2) taking on Ryan Loder (1-2). Loder is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Loder carries a modest Elo edge (897 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bekoev throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bekoev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Loder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azamat Bekoev over Ryan Loder. The model gives Bekoev a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Bekoev, but our model sees only 61%. That 14-point gap favoring Loder is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (14-6) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-6-2).

Robertson is rated at 1422 — 274 points above Rodriguez's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Robertson's wrestler game against Rodriguez's knockout artist approach. Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Marina Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Robertson at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Quang Le (1-3) taking on Gaston Bolanos (2-2).

Le carries a modest Elo edge (823 to 775), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bolanos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bolanos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gaston Bolanos over Quang Le. The model gives Bolanos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Le, but our model sees only 37%. That 9-point gap favoring Bolanos is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Thomas Petersen (3-3) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-7). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Petersen is rated at 1123 — 216 points above Mayes's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Petersen's wrestler game against Mayes's striker approach. Petersen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mayes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petersen throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Petersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Petersen over Don'Tale Mayes. The model gives Petersen a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Juliana Miller (2-3) taking on Ivana Petrovic (1-3). Petrovic will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miller is rated at 900 — 218 points above Petrovic's 682. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Petrovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivana Petrovic over Juliana Miller. We're leaning Petrovic here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.