UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 217 points above Figueiredo's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Figueiredo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Reinier de Ridder (4-0) taking on Bo Nickal (4-1). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ridder at 1433 versus Nickal at 1320. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Ridder rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ridder throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bo Nickal over Reinier de Ridder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nickal at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7).

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 317 points above Ponzinibbio's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Ponzinibbio's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ponzinibbio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Daniel Marcos (4-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jackson at 1448 versus Marcos at 1352. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Marcos brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcos throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Daniel Marcos. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Serhiy Sidey (1-1) taking on Cameron Smotherman (1-1). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1120 — 153 points above Smotherman's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smotherman throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Smotherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smotherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Smotherman over Serhiy Sidey. The model gives Smotherman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (2-2) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 1175 — 235 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mason Jones over Jeremy Stephens. We're leaning Jones here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1304 — 227 points above Tate's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Tate's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Tate is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yana Santos over Miesha Tate. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Azamat Bekoev (2-0) taking on Ryan Loder (1-1). Loder is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bekoev is rated at 1057 — 150 points above Loder's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bekoev throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bekoev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Loder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Loder over Azamat Bekoev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Loder at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2).

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 293 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Robertson's wrestler game against Rodriguez's knockout artist approach. Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Marina Rodriguez. We're leaning Robertson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Quang Le (1-2) taking on Gaston Bolanos (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Le at 874, Bolanos at 867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bolanos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bolanos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gaston Bolanos over Quang Le. We're leaning Bolanos here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Thomas Petersen (2-2) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Petersen carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petersen throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Petersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Petersen over Don'Tale Mayes. We're leaning Petersen here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Juliana Miller (2-2) taking on Ivana Petrovic (1-2). Petrovic will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 910 versus Petrovic at 788. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Petrovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivana Petrovic over Juliana Miller. The model gives Petrovic a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.