UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkov (13-5) taking on Fabricio Werdum (12-6). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1856 — 231 points above Werdum's 1625. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Fabricio Werdum. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 35% implied while our model sees 57% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-6).

Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 508 points above Manuwa's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Manuwa's knockout artist approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Manuwa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Manuwa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Manuwa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Blachowicz at 27% implied while our model sees 39% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tom Duquesnoy (2-1) taking on Terrion Ware (0-4). Ware will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duquesnoy is rated at 1143 — 507 points above Ware's 636. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ware throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Duquesnoy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Duquesnoy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Duquesnoy over Terrion Ware. The model is firm on this one: Duquesnoy at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Duquesnoy at 76% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-5) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-6).

Edwards is rated at 1747 — 600 points above Sobotta's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sobotta is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobotta throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Peter Sobotta. We're leaning Edwards here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Charles Byrd (1-3) taking on John Phillips (1-5).

Phillips is rated at 801 — 177 points above Byrd's 624. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Phillips over Charles Byrd. The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Byrd, but our model sees only 42%. That 7-point gap favoring Phillips is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-7) taking on Oliver Enkamp (0-2). Enkamp will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Roberts is rated at 1018 — 196 points above Enkamp's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Enkamp is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Oliver Enkamp. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Roberts, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Enkamp is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Henry (2-2) taking on Hakeem Dawodu (6-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Henry.

Dawodu is rated at 1159 — 231 points above Henry's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Henry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Danny Henry. The model gives Dawodu a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Henry at 28% implied while our model sees 36% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-10-1) taking on Magomed Ankalaev (12-2-1).

Ankalaev is rated at 1890 — 710 points above Craig's 1180. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Craig's wrestler game against Ankalaev's striker approach. Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ankalaev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Paul Craig. We're leaning Ankalaev here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Craig at 16% implied while our model sees 29% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kajan Johnson (4-3) taking on Stevie Ray (7-4). Johnson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Johnson at 1280, Ray at 1257. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kajan Johnson over Stevie Ray. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 37% implied while our model sees 52% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Dmitry Sosnovskiy (1-0) taking on Mark Godbeer (2-2).

Sosnovskiy is rated at 1193 — 328 points above Godbeer's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godbeer throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Godbeer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sosnovskiy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Godbeer over Dmitry Sosnovskiy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godbeer at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.