UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-19) taking on Josh Emmett (10-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Stephens.

Emmett is rated at 1437 — 325 points above Stephens's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stephens's knockout artist game against Emmett's all-rounder approach. Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Emmett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Emmett over Jeremy Stephens. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Emmett at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Stephens, but our model sees only 45%. That 10-point gap favoring Emmett is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-13) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Andrade at 1240, Pennington at 1214. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Tecia Pennington. The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Andrade, but our model sees only 65%. That 6-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-7) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-13). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Latifi is rated at 1309 — 253 points above Preux's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Latifi's knockout artist game against Preux's all-rounder approach. Latifi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Ilir Latifi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-10) taking on Mike Perry (7-8). Griffin will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin carries a modest Elo edge (1276 to 1226), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perry throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Perry over Max Griffin. The model gives Perry a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Griffin at 22% implied while our model sees 37% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-9) taking on Renan Barao (9-8). Barao will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barao carries a modest Elo edge (973 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Kelleher looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelleher the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Brian Kelleher. We're leaning Barao here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 39% for Kelleher, but our model sees only 34%. That 4-point gap favoring Barao is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Marion Reneau (5-7-1) taking on Sara McMann (7-6).

McMann is rated at 1189 — 245 points above Reneau's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reneau's knockout artist game against McMann's wrestler approach. Reneau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McMann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sara McMann over Marion Reneau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McMann at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Reneau at 36% implied while our model sees 45% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-16) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-6). Moroz is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hill at 1147 versus Moroz at 1018. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Moroz's wrestler approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Moroz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Angela Hill. The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Hill, but our model sees only 35%. That 22-point gap favoring Moroz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (8-5) taking on Ben Saunders (9-10). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jouban is rated at 1244 — 308 points above Saunders's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jouban brings a versatile approach, while Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Saunders the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jouban is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Jouban over Ben Saunders. The model is firm on this one: Jouban at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Jouban at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-13-1) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alvey at 862, Prachnio at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Alvey's all-rounder game against Prachnio's striker approach. Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Prachnio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Prachnio over Sam Alvey. The model gives Prachnio a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 32% implied while our model sees 38% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-6-1) taking on Russell Doane (3-5). Doane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yahya is rated at 1127 — 207 points above Doane's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Russell Doane. We're leaning Yahya here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Yahya at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (8-6) taking on Eric Shelton (2-4). Shelton will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1332 — 419 points above Shelton's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shelton looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shelton the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Perez over Eric Shelton. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 48% implied while our model sees 63% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Manny Bermudez (3-2) taking on Albert Morales (1-4-1).

Bermudez is rated at 997 — 185 points above Morales's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manny Bermudez over Albert Morales. We're leaning Bermudez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bermudez at 61% implied while our model sees 69% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.