UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Saturday, January 20, 2018·Boston, Massachusetts, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Miocic 54%46% Ngannou
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+16.4% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +272(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Miocic)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cormier 74%26% Oezdemir
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +216(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Cormier)
FeatherweightMISS
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kattar 38%62% Burgos
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -204(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Kattar)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Gian Villante won by Decision - Split (R3)
Villante 61%39% Barroso
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Villante)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Barroso)
BantamweightMISS
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R2)
Font 44%56% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 49% (-4.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Font)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Kyle Bochniak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bochniak 34%66% Davis
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 47% (-13.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Bochniak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Bochniak)
WelterweightHIT
Abdul Razak Alhassan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alhassan 59%41% Homasi
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 65% (-6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +375(favors Alhassan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Homasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Homasi)
FlyweightHIT
Dustin Ortiz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ortiz 57%43% Pantoja
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 42% (+15.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Ortiz)
FeatherweightHIT
Julio Arce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arce 51%49% Ige
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ige)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ige)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Enrique Barzola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barzola 72%28% Bessette
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +194(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Barzola)
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Makhachev 80%20% Tibau
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+11.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Tibau)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Makhachev)