UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Francis Ngannou (11-2). Ngannou will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 302 points above Miocic's 1847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Ngannou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Francis Ngannou. The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 38% implied while our model sees 59% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7). Oezdemir is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 335 points above Oezdemir's 1501. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cormier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Volkan Oezdemir. We're leaning Cormier here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Cormier, but our model sees only 70%. That 5-point gap favoring Oezdemir is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Shane Burgos (7-3). Burgos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Burgos at 1365 versus Kattar at 1231. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kattar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Calvin Kattar. The model gives Burgos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kattar at 38% implied while our model sees 44% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Francimar Barroso (4-3).

Barroso is rated at 961 — 256 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Barroso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Francimar Barroso. The model gives Villante a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Villante, but our model sees only 55%. That 6-point gap favoring Barroso is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Thomas Almeida (5-4).

Font is rated at 1361 — 411 points above Almeida's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Font's submission artist game against Almeida's striker approach. Font is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Almeida brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Rob Font. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Bochniak (2-4) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6). Davis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bochniak carries a modest Elo edge (863 to 825), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Bochniak's striker game against Davis's all-rounder approach. Bochniak brings a versatile approach, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bochniak throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bochniak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Davis over Kyle Bochniak. We're leaning Davis here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 47% for Bochniak, but our model sees only 32%. That 15-point gap favoring Davis is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Sabah Homasi (0-2).

Alhassan is rated at 973 — 156 points above Homasi's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Homasi throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Homasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Sabah Homasi. The model gives Alhassan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Alhassan, but our model sees only 57%. That 7-point gap favoring Homasi is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Alexandre Pantoja (14-3).

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 168 points above Ortiz's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Pantoja has won 8 straight.

Stylistically this is Ortiz's striker game against Pantoja's wrestler approach. Ortiz brings a versatile approach, while Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Alexandre Pantoja. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ortiz at 42% implied while our model sees 59% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Dan Ige (11-9).

Ige carries a modest Elo edge (1235 to 1167), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Ige over Julio Arce. The model gives Ige a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Arce, but our model sees only 43%. That 14-point gap favoring Ige is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Matt Bessette (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bessette.

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 202 points above Bessette's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Bessette has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Matt Bessette. We're leaning Barzola here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1191 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tibau throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Gleison Tibau. The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 68% implied while our model sees 82% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.