UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Saturday, April 22, 2017·Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 12/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Swanson 86%14% Lobov
STRONGMarket: 84% (+1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +408(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Swanson)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R1)
Iaquinta 82%18% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 78% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +326(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Sanchez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ovince Saint Preux won by Submission (R2)
Preux 42%58% Lima
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Preux)
BantamweightHIT
John Dodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dodson 89%11% Wineland
STRONGMarket: 79% (+9.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Dodson)
LightweightHIT
Stevie Ray won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Ray 69%31% Lauzon
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -105(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lauzon)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perry 65%35% Ellenberger
LEANMarket: 55% (+9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Perry)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ellenberger)
MiddleweightHIT
Thales Leites won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leites 53%47% Alvey
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Leites)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Submission (R2)
Moreno 64%36% Ortiz
LEANMarket: 44% (+19.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Moreno)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 69%31% McBride
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Holtzman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Danielle Taylor won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taylor 68%32% Penne
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (+17.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +151(favors Taylor)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Penne)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 79%21% Dandois
STRONGMarket: 72% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +42(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Davis)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barberena 76%24% Proctor
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +254(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Barberena)
FlyweightHIT
Hector Sandoval won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sandoval 61%39% Schnell
LEANMarket: 44% (+17.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +136(favors Sandoval)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Sandoval)