UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Cub Swanson (15-10) taking on Artem Lobov (2-5). Swanson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Swanson is rated at 1323 — 308 points above Lobov's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's all-rounder game against Lobov's striker approach. Swanson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lobov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lobov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over Artem Lobov. The model is firm on this one: Swanson at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-6) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Iaquinta at 1361 versus Sanchez at 1216. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Iaquinta is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Iaquinta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Diego Sanchez. The model is firm on this one: Iaquinta at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Iaquinta at 78% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-13) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1346 — 290 points above Preux's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Lima's knockout artist approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Ovince Saint Preux. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lima at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-7) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-10). Wineland is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dodson is rated at 1376 — 356 points above Wineland's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Eddie Wineland. The model is firm on this one: Dodson at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Dodson at 79% implied while our model sees 87% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (7-4) taking on Joe Lauzon (15-12).

Ray is rated at 1257 — 158 points above Lauzon's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Joe Lauzon. We're leaning Ray here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ray at 63% implied while our model sees 74% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-8) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-11).

Perry is rated at 1226 — 189 points above Ellenberger's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perry's all-rounder game against Ellenberger's knockout artist approach. Perry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ellenberger is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perry throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Perry over Jake Ellenberger. The model gives Perry a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Perry at 55% implied while our model sees 64% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (13-8) taking on Sam Alvey (10-13-1). Leites will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1289 — 427 points above Alvey's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leites the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Thales Leites. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Leites, but our model sees only 44%. That 9-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-7-2) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-6). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Moreno carries a modest Elo edge (1417 to 1384), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Ortiz has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Dustin Ortiz. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 44% implied while our model sees 63% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-6) taking on Michael McBride (0-2).

Holtzman is rated at 1099 — 283 points above McBride's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Michael McBride. The model is firm on this one: Holtzman at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Holtzman at 72% implied while our model sees 81% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Danielle Taylor (2-3) taking on Jessica Penne (3-6). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Taylor carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 807), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danielle Taylor over Jessica Penne. We're leaning Taylor here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Taylor at 51% implied while our model sees 73% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (8-6) taking on Cindy Dandois (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1018 versus Dandois at 902. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dandois has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Davis over Cindy Dandois. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Davis at 72% implied while our model sees 82% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-10) taking on Joe Proctor (4-4).

Barberena carries a modest Elo edge (1089 to 1044), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barberena's all-rounder game against Proctor's knockout artist approach. Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Proctor is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barberena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Proctor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Joe Proctor. The model is firm on this one: Barberena at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Hector Sandoval (2-2) taking on Matt Schnell (7-8). Schnell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sandoval at 970, Schnell at 989. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandoval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sandoval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hector Sandoval over Matt Schnell. We're leaning Sandoval here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sandoval at 44% implied while our model sees 66% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.