UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Saturday, April 8, 2017·Buffalo, New York, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R2)
Cormier 53%47% Johnson
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+6.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mousasi 67%33% Weidman
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+14.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Weidman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cynthia Calvillo won by Submission (R3)
Calvillo 77%23% Gonzalez
STRONGMarket: 73% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +103(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Calvillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Calvillo)
WelterweightHIT
Thiago Alves won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alves 51%49% Cote
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Cote)
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 48%52% Brooks
TOSS-UPMarket: 33% (+15.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +187(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Oliveira)
FeatherweightHIT
Myles Jury won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jury 82%18% Torre
STRONGMarket: 79% (+2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +323(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Torre)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Jury)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 68%32% Strickland
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-4.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Usman)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Burgos 76%24% Rosa
STRONGMarket: 67% (+9.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Rosa)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Patrick Cummins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummins 45%55% Blachowicz
LEANMarket: 49% (-4.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Cummins)
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gillespie 76%24% Holbrook
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +58(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gillespie)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Gillespie)
LightweightMISS
Desmond Green won by Decision - Split (R3)
Green 27%73% Emmett
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-6.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -163(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Emmett)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cerminara 63%37% Aldana
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Aldana)
FlyweightMISS
Bibulatov Magomed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomed 48%52% Lausa
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -67(favors Lausa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Lausa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lausa)