UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cormier at 1835 versus Johnson at 1708. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cormier's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Anthony Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cormier at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 47% implied while our model sees 53% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7).

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 701 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weidman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Chris Weidman. We're leaning Mousasi here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mousasi at 52% implied while our model sees 67% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1) taking on Pearl Gonzalez (0-1).

Calvillo carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 855), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Pearl Gonzalez. The model is firm on this one: Calvillo at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Calvillo at 73% implied while our model sees 77% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10). Cote is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cote is rated at 1221 — 320 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Patrick Cote. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 45% implied while our model sees 51% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Will Brooks (1-2).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 911 points above Brooks's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Brooks over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brooks at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 33% implied while our model sees 48% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Mike de la Torre (2-3).

Jury is rated at 1141 — 205 points above Torre's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jury's wrestler game against Torre's striker approach. Jury looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Torre brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torre throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myles Jury over Mike de la Torre. The model is firm on this one: Jury at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Usman at 1828, Strickland at 1813. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Sean Strickland. We're leaning Usman here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Usman, but our model sees only 68%. That 5-point gap favoring Strickland is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 549 points above Rosa's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burgos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Charles Rosa. The model is firm on this one: Burgos at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Burgos at 67% implied while our model sees 76% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 712 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cummins's striker game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Cummins brings a versatile approach, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Patrick Cummins. The model gives Blachowicz a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Cummins, but our model sees only 45%. That 4-point gap favoring Blachowicz is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Andrew Holbrook (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Holbrook.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 803 points above Holbrook's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gillespie throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Andrew Holbrook. The model is firm on this one: Gillespie at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Gillespie at 71% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Desmond Green (3-3) taking on Josh Emmett (10-5). Green is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Emmett at 1356 versus Green at 1221. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Emmett over Desmond Green. We're leaning Emmett here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Green, but our model sees only 27%. That 6-point gap favoring Emmett is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Irene Aldana (8-5).

Aldana carries a modest Elo edge (1331 to 1283), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cerminara's striker game against Aldana's all-rounder approach. Cerminara brings a versatile approach, while Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Irene Aldana. The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Bibulatov Magomed (1-1) taking on Jenel Lausa (1-2). Lausa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Magomed at 912 versus Lausa at 795. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lausa throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lausa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Magomed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jenel Lausa over Bibulatov Magomed. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lausa at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.