UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
Sunday, February 19, 2017·Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 64%36% Browne
LEANMarket: 51% (+12.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Browne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Browne)
MiddleweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hendricks 55%45% Lombard
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lombard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hendricks)
FeatherweightHIT
Gavin Tucker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tucker 66%34% Sicilia
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Tucker)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Sicilia)
MiddleweightMISS
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 48%52% Ferreira
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Ferreira)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Sara McMann won by Submission (R1)
McMann 87%13% Mazany
STRONGMarket: 82% (+4.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +187(favors McMann)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors McMann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors McMann)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by KO/TKO (R1)
Felder 87%13% Ricci
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +239(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Felder)
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ponzinibbio 79%21% Taleb
STRONGMarket: 77% (+2.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Taleb)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Randa Markos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Markos 31%69% Esparza
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -194(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Esparza)
BantamweightHIT
Aiemann Zahabi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zahabi 63%37% Vieira
LEANMarket: 66% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -4(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Vieira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Vieira)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 63%37% Marshman
LEANMarket: 62% (+1.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -145(favors Marshman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Santos)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R1)
Meerschaert 72%28% Janes
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Janes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Janes)