UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Browne.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 235 points above Browne's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Browne is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Browne the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Travis Browne. The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 51% implied while our model sees 64% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hendricks at 1068 versus Lombard at 964. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hendricks the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Hector Lombard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hendricks at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Hendricks at 48% implied while our model sees 55% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Gavin Tucker (4-2) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6).

Tucker is rated at 1018 — 191 points above Sicilia's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gavin Tucker over Sam Sicilia. We're leaning Tucker here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tucker at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Cezar Ferreira (9-5). Ferreira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 237 points above Ferreira's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Theodorou's striker game against Ferreira's wrestler approach. Theodorou brings a versatile approach, while Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Elias Theodorou. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5).

McMann is rated at 1158 — 462 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McMann throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Mazany has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sara McMann over Gina Mazany. The model is firm on this one: McMann at 87%. Notably, the betting market has McMann at 82% implied while our model sees 87% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Alex Ricci (0-1).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 499 points above Ricci's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Felder over Alex Ricci. The model is firm on this one: Felder at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Felder at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Nordine Taleb (7-4).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1177 — 201 points above Taleb's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Nordine Taleb. The model is firm on this one: Ponzinibbio at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Markos.

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 301 points above Markos's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Markos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carla Esparza over Randa Markos. We're leaning Esparza here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Reginaldo Vieira (1-1). Zahabi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 668 points above Vieira's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Reginaldo Vieira. The model gives Zahabi a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Jack Marshman (3-4). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1292 — 377 points above Marshman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Jack Marshman. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Ryan Janes (1-2).

Janes is rated at 1072 — 205 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Janes throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Janes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Ryan Janes. We're leaning Meerschaert here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.