UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-5) taking on Dennis Bermudez (10-7). Jung will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 1643 — 470 points above Bermudez's 1173. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Chan Sung Jung. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bermudez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jung at 37% implied while our model sees 49% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-5) taking on Alexa Grasso (9-5-1).

Grasso is rated at 1602 — 715 points above Herrig's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Felice Herrig. We're leaning Grasso here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Herrig at 26% implied while our model sees 33% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-5) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-4). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vick carries a modest Elo edge (1186 to 1107), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Trujillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Abel Trujillo. We're leaning Vick here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vick at 52% implied while our model sees 69% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (9-7) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-13). Preux will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oezdemir is rated at 1552 — 497 points above Preux's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Volkan Oezdemir. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcel Fortuna (1-2) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-7). Hamilton is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fortuna is rated at 892 — 178 points above Hamilton's 715. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fortuna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Marcel Fortuna. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hamilton at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Fortuna at 35% implied while our model sees 47% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-13) taking on Angela Hill (13-16). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Andrade at 1240 versus Hill at 1147. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Angela Hill. The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 82% implied while our model sees 92% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Adam Milstead (1-2) taking on Curtis Blaydes (14-5). Blaydes will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blaydes is rated at 1794 — 1051 points above Milstead's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Milstead throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Milstead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Adam Milstead. We're leaning Blaydes here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (8-3) taking on Chris Gruetzemacher (3-4). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Skelly is rated at 1303 — 209 points above Gruetzemacher's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Skelly's submission artist game against Gruetzemacher's striker approach. Skelly is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chas Skelly over Chris Gruetzemacher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Skelly at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 73% for Skelly, but our model sees only 53%. That 21-point gap favoring Gruetzemacher is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-7) taking on Michinori Tanaka (2-3). Ramos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ramos at 908, Tanaka at 914. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanaka throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michinori Tanaka over Ricardo Ramos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanaka at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-8) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-5). Rawlings is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1214 — 449 points above Rawlings's 765. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Bec Rawlings. The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-10) taking on Niko Price (8-11). Price will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morono carries a modest Elo edge (1029 to 975), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Alex Morono. The model gives Price a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Morono, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-7) taking on Daniel Jolly (0-2).

Jr. is rated at 1559 — 966 points above Jolly's 594. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jolly throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jolly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Daniel Jolly. The model is firm on this one: Jr. at 77%.