UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Sunday, January 15, 2017·Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Yair Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 85%15% Penn
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rodriguez)
LightweightHIT
Joe Lauzon won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lauzon 59%41% Held
LEANMarket: 53% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +312(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lauzon)
WelterweightMISS
Ben Saunders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saunders 39%61% McGee
LEANMarket: 47% (-8.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors McGee)
FlyweightHIT
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 73%27% Moraga
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+16.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Pettis)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 75%25% Powell
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Powell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
BantamweightMISS
Augusto Mendes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mendes 47%53% Saenz
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+6.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -61(favors Saenz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Saenz)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R1)
Oleinik 48%52% Pesta
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +401(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pesta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Oleinik)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 62%38% White
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +88(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Martin)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Nina Nunes won by Submission (R3)
Nunes 50%50% Jones-Lybarger
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -35(favors Jones-Lybarger)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jones-Lybarger)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R2)
Harris 54%46% Sherman
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-2.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Sherman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sherman)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Joachim Christensen won by KO/TKO (R3)
Christensen 69%31% Mihajlovic
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -2(favors Mihajlovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Christensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mihajlovic)
HeavyweightMISS
Cyril Asker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Asker 48%52% Smoliakov
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -15(favors Smoliakov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Asker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smoliakov)