UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Sunday, January 15, 2017·Phoenix, Arizona, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Yair Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 89%11% Penn
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rodriguez)
LightweightHIT
Joe Lauzon won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lauzon 55%45% Held
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +381(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lauzon)
WelterweightMISS
Ben Saunders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saunders 28%72% McGee
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 47% (-18.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors McGee)
FlyweightHIT
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 72%28% Moraga
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+14.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Pettis)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 76%24% Powell
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Powell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
BantamweightHIT
Augusto Mendes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mendes 52%48% Saenz
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+11.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -137(favors Saenz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Saenz)
Prelims
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R1)
Oleinik 50%50% Pesta
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +586(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pesta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Oleinik)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 54%46% White
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Martin)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Nina Nunes won by Submission (R3)
Nunes 55%45% Jones-Lybarger
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -62(favors Jones-Lybarger)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jones-Lybarger)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R2)
Harris 67%33% Sherman
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+10.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sherman)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Joachim Christensen won by KO/TKO (R3)
Christensen 72%28% Mihajlovic
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +9(favors Christensen)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Christensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mihajlovic)
HeavyweightMISS
Cyril Asker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Asker 49%51% Smoliakov
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -8(favors Smoliakov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Asker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smoliakov)