UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2).

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 621 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over BJ Penn. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 85%.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Marcin Held (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Held at 939. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Marcin Held. The model gives Lauzon a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lauzon at 53% implied while our model sees 59% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Court McGee (11-12). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

McGee is rated at 1037 — 225 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Saunders's knockout artist game against McGee's wrestler approach. Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Ben Saunders. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Saunders, but our model sees only 39%. That 8-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on John Moraga (8-5). Pettis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pettis carries a modest Elo edge (1235 to 1166), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Moraga has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moraga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over John Moraga. We're leaning Pettis here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 57% implied while our model sees 73% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Devin Powell (1-2). Powell is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Klose is rated at 1397 — 489 points above Powell's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Powell throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Powell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Powell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Devin Powell. We're leaning Klose here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Klose at 71% implied while our model sees 75% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Augusto Mendes (1-1) taking on Frankie Saenz (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mendes at 988 versus Saenz at 888. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Saenz over Augusto Mendes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saenz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Mendes at 40% implied while our model sees 47% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Viktor Pesta (1-3). Oleinik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oleinik is rated at 1073 — 317 points above Pesta's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pesta throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pesta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viktor Pesta over Aleksei Oleinik. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pesta at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Oleinik, but our model sees only 48%. That 8-point gap favoring Pesta is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Alex White (4-5).

Martin is rated at 1419 — 513 points above White's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martin's wrestler game against White's knockout artist approach. Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while White is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Alex White. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Nina Nunes (4-4) taking on Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (0-2).

Nunes is rated at 1155 — 407 points above Jones-Lybarger's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones-Lybarger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones-Lybarger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger over Nina Nunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jones-Lybarger at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Nunes, but our model sees only 50%. That 8-point gap favoring Jones-Lybarger is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Harris is rated at 1133 — 311 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Harris's all-rounder game against Sherman's striker approach. Harris is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sherman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Chase Sherman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Harris at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Joachim Christensen (1-2) taking on Bojan Mihajlovic (0-2). Christensen is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Christensen at 862 versus Mihajlovic at 748. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christensen throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mihajlovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mihajlovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joachim Christensen over Bojan Mihajlovic. We're leaning Christensen here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cyril Asker (2-2) taking on Dmitrii Smoliakov (0-2).

Asker is rated at 904 — 228 points above Smoliakov's 676. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Asker throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Smoliakov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smoliakov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dmitrii Smoliakov over Cyril Asker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smoliakov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.