UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Saturday, November 12, 2016·New York City, New York, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/10(80%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✓✓
Main Card
LightweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R2)
McGregor 64%36% Alvarez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 56% (+7.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Alvarez)
Welterweight
Woodley 43%57% Thompson
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
LEANMarket: 36% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Woodley)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jedrzejczyk 89%11% Kowalkiewicz
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+10.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +88(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jedrzejczyk)
MiddleweightHIT
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 63%37% Weidman
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 39% (+24.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Weidman)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 47%53% Tate
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Pennington)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 74%26% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Edgar)
LightweightHIT
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R3)
Nurmagomedov 83%17% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+10.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.4(favors Nurmagomedov)
MiddleweightMISS
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Boetsch 41%59% Natal
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 41% (+0.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Natal)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R1)
Luque 66%34% Muhammad
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (+14.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Muhammad)
Early Prelims
Catch WeightHIT
Jim Miller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miller 56%44% Alves
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 41% (+14.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Miller)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Liz Carmouche won by Decision - Split (R3)
Carmouche 52%48% Cerminara
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -243(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Carmouche)