UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Eddie Alvarez (4-2). McGregor will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 174 points above Alvarez's 1398. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Eddie Alvarez. The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has McGregor at 56% implied while our model sees 61% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Thompson.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Thompson at 1329. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Tyron Woodley. The model gives Thompson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Woodley at 36% implied while our model sees 42% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jedrzejczyk.

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1192 — 321 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's striker game against Kowalkiewicz's all-rounder approach. Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach, while Kowalkiewicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jedrzejczyk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The model is firm on this one: Jedrzejczyk at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Jedrzejczyk at 79% implied while our model sees 87% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-3) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Romero is rated at 1613 — 553 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romero's striker game against Weidman's wrestler approach. Romero brings a versatile approach, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yoel Romero over Chris Weidman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romero at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Romero at 39% implied while our model sees 54% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 334 points above Tate's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Miesha Tate. The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 38% implied while our model sees 63% — a 25-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Stephens is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 244 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edgar's wrestler game against Stephens's striker approach. Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Jeremy Stephens. We're leaning Edgar here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 815 points above Johnson's 1245. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Michael Johnson. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 73% implied while our model sees 86% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1). Natal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 242 points above Natal's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Boetsch's striker game against Natal's wrestler approach. Boetsch brings a versatile approach, while Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Tim Boetsch. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Natal at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Boetsch at 41% implied while our model sees 50% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4). Luque will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 497 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Belal Muhammad. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 51% implied while our model sees 62% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 313 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Thiago Alves. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 41% implied while our model sees 56% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-4) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 156 points above Carmouche's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Carmouche's wrestler game against Cerminara's striker approach. Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerminara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Liz Carmouche. The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.