UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Saturday, November 5, 2016·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Ferguson 54%46% Anjos
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Anjos)
LightweightMISS
Diego Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 43%57% Held
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 35% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +263(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sanchez)
FeatherweightMISS
Ricardo Lamas won by Submission (R2)
Lamas 37%63% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 48% (-11.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Oliveira)
LightweightMISS
Martin Bravo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bravo 36%64% Puelles
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 49% (-13.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Puelles)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Puelles)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 52%48% Magomedov
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+13.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Dariush)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 88%12% Clark
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -14(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Clark)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Erik Perez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Perez 76%24% Arantes
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+10.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Perez)
Catch WeightHIT
Joe Soto won by Submission (R1)
Soto 54%46% Beltran
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+1.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -446(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Beltran)
WelterweightMISS
Max Griffin won by KO/TKO (R1)
Griffin 49%51% Montano
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-10.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +76(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Montano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Montano)
BantamweightHIT
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by KO/TKO (R3)
Andrade 73%27% Briones
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -27(favors Briones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Briones)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alvey 68%32% Nicholson
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nicholson)
LightweightHIT
Marco Polo Reyes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Reyes 73%27% Novelli
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +315(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.1(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Novelli)
FeatherweightHIT
Enrique Barzola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barzola 91%9% Avila
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+11.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +172(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Barzola)