UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Saturday, November 5, 2016·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Ferguson 51%49% Anjos
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Anjos)
LightweightMISS
Diego Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 40%60% Held
LEANMarket: 35% (+5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +116(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sanchez)
FeatherweightMISS
Ricardo Lamas won by Submission (R2)
Lamas 42%58% Oliveira
LEANMarket: 48% (-6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Oliveira)
LightweightMISS
Martin Bravo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bravo 36%64% Puelles
LEANMarket: 49% (-12.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Puelles)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Puelles)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 63%37% Magomedov
LEANMarket: 38% (+24.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Dariush)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 88%12% Clark
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -3(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Clark)
BantamweightHIT
Erik Perez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Perez 78%22% Arantes
STRONGMarket: 66% (+12.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Perez)
Catch WeightMISS
Joe Soto won by Submission (R1)
Soto 39%61% Beltran
LEANMarket: 52% (-13.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -312(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Beltran)
WelterweightHIT
Max Griffin won by KO/TKO (R1)
Griffin 53%47% Montano
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +22(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Montano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Montano)
BantamweightHIT
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by KO/TKO (R3)
Andrade 60%40% Briones
LEAN
→Elo gap: -23(favors Briones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Briones)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alvey 67%33% Nicholson
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +157(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nicholson)
LightweightHIT
Marco Polo Reyes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Reyes 77%23% Novelli
STRONGMarket: 62% (+14.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +251(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.1(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Novelli)
FeatherweightHIT
Enrique Barzola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barzola 91%9% Avila
STRONGMarket: 80% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +111(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Barzola)