UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-9) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-15). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1443 — 188 points above Ferguson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Rafael Dos Anjos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferguson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-13) taking on Marcin Held (1-3).

Sanchez is rated at 1216 — 251 points above Held's 966. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Held has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Held over Diego Sanchez. The model gives Held a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 35% implied while our model sees 43% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (11-6) taking on Charles Oliveira (25-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 574 points above Lamas's 1401. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Ricardo Lamas. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Lamas, but our model sees only 37%. That 11-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Martin Bravo (1-3) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-4).

Puelles is rated at 1125 — 510 points above Bravo's 615. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Puelles throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Puelles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Martin Bravo. The model gives Puelles a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Bravo, but our model sees only 36%. That 13-point gap favoring Puelles is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-1) taking on Rashid Magomedov (5-1).

Dariush carries a modest Elo edge (1557 to 1525), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Magomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Rashid Magomedov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dariush at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 38% implied while our model sees 52% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (9-5-1) taking on Heather Clark (1-2).

Grasso is rated at 1602 — 720 points above Clark's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Heather Clark. The model is firm on this one: Grasso at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (7-2) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-6-1). Arantes will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1353 — 361 points above Arantes's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Perez over Felipe Arantes. The model is firm on this one: Perez at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 66% implied while our model sees 76% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Joe Soto (3-5) taking on Marco Beltran (3-3). Beltran is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Soto is rated at 1017 — 204 points above Beltran's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Soto is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Beltran is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Soto the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Soto over Marco Beltran. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Soto at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-10) taking on Erick Montano (1-2). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1276 — 553 points above Montano's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montano throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Montano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Montano over Max Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Montano at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Griffin, but our model sees only 49%. That 11-point gap favoring Montano is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-7) taking on Henry Briones (1-4).

Andrade is rated at 1074 — 308 points above Briones's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Briones throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Briones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade over Henry Briones. We're leaning Andrade here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-13-1) taking on Alex Nicholson (1-3). Nicholson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alvey at 862, Nicholson at 840. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicholson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Alex Nicholson. We're leaning Alvey here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Marco Polo Reyes (4-4) taking on Jason Novelli (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Novelli at 876 versus Reyes at 780. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Novelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Polo Reyes over Jason Novelli. We're leaning Reyes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 62% implied while our model sees 73% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3-1) taking on Chris Avila (0-2).

Barzola is rated at 1106 — 387 points above Avila's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Chris Avila. The model is firm on this one: Barzola at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 80% implied while our model sees 91% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.