UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 217 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Rafael Dos Anjos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferguson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Marcin Held (0-3).

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 200 points above Held's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Held has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Held over Diego Sanchez. The model gives Held a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 35% implied while our model sees 40% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 561 points above Lamas's 1285. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Ricardo Lamas. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Lamas, but our model sees only 42%. That 6-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Martin Bravo (1-2) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-3).

Puelles is rated at 1040 — 292 points above Bravo's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Puelles throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Puelles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Martin Bravo. The model gives Puelles a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Bravo, but our model sees only 36%. That 13-point gap favoring Puelles is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Rashid Magomedov (4-1).

Dariush carries a modest Elo edge (1437 to 1374), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Magomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Rashid Magomedov. The model gives Dariush a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 38% implied while our model sees 63% — a 25-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Heather Clark (1-1).

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 458 points above Clark's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Heather Clark. The model is firm on this one: Grasso at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1). Arantes will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1303 — 378 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Perez over Felipe Arantes. The model is firm on this one: Perez at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 66% implied while our model sees 78% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Joe Soto (3-4) taking on Marco Beltran (3-2). Beltran is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Soto at 963 versus Beltran at 817. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Soto is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Beltran is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Soto the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Beltran over Joe Soto. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Soto, but our model sees only 39%. That 13-point gap favoring Beltran is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-9) taking on Erick Montano (1-1). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1152 — 344 points above Montano's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montano throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Montano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Erick Montano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Griffin, but our model sees only 53%. That 6-point gap favoring Montano is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Henry Briones (1-3).

Andrade is rated at 1146 — 338 points above Briones's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Briones throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Briones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade over Henry Briones. The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Alex Nicholson (1-2). Nicholson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nicholson is rated at 893 — 159 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicholson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Alex Nicholson. We're leaning Alvey here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Marco Polo Reyes (4-3) taking on Jason Novelli (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Novelli at 891 versus Reyes at 772. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Novelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Polo Reyes over Jason Novelli. The model is firm on this one: Reyes at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 62% implied while our model sees 77% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Chris Avila (0-1).

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 255 points above Avila's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Chris Avila. The model is firm on this one: Barzola at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 80% implied while our model sees 91% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.